Teen Jobs Plunge in August 2024
The employment situation for U.S. teens significantly worsened in August 2024 with both the number and percentage of working teens within the Age 16-19 population dropping to their lowest level since 2021.
The decline continues a falling trend in teen employment that has taken hold since May 2024, which is very visible in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ seasonally-adjusted employment figures. Teen employment peaked in May 2024 at 5,871,000 and has since fallen 478,000, or 8.1%, to 5,393,000 in August 2024. Measured as a percentage of the Age 16-19 teen population, the share of working teens has dropped by a seasonally-adjusted 2.8% over the summer of 2024.
Over that same time, the seasonally-adjusted percentage of employed Americans Age 16 and older has been flat, ranging between 60.03% and 60.05% of the Age 16+ population. The declines in teen employment have been offset by a small increase in the numbers of working Americans Age 20 and older.
The negative developments for the teen employment situation matter because teens are the proverbial canaries in the coal mine for the U.S. economy. Compared to older Americans, teens are less educated, less skilled, and have the least experience, which makes them the most marginal members of the U.S. labor force. As such, when the nation’s overall employment situation starts turning for the worse, working teens will often be the first to feel the negative impact.
The following combined set of charts shows these changes and breaks down the changes for the population of older teens (Age 18-19) and younger teens (Age 16-17).
Teen employment also has a strong seasonal component. Teen employment rises sharply in June and July each year during the annual summer break in their schooling, before dropping off in both August and September as school resumes. Since the seasonally adjusted employment figures for teens take that annual pattern into account, the declines this data shows mean that teen employment is falling off much more rapidly than would be considered to be typical.
About the Seasonally-Adjusted Data
Each of the data series presented in these charts receives its own seasonal adjustment. Because of that, the numbers of working teens Age 16-17 and Age 18-19 won’t necessarily add up to the totals shown for the combined Age 16-19 population. If you’re looking for employment figures that do add up, you’ll want to review non-seasonally adjusted data.
References
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics (Current Population Survey – CPS). [Online Database]. Accessed: 14 September 2024.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer.. Prompt: “A teenager wearing a hoodie sitting on a box looking at their mobile phone, with a background chart showing a sudden decrease, and the box labeled ‘TEEN JOBS’”.
Source: https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/09/teen-jobs-plunge-in-august-2024.html
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