Visual Comparisons of Median Household Income Estimates in the 21st Century

The U.S. Census Bureau released its annual estimate of median household income in the United States for 2023 earlier this month. At $80,610, it has nearly doubled 2000′s median household income of $41,990.

Since the Census Bureau releases its annual estimates in September of the year following the year to which its income data belongs, that leaves room for others to fill in the picture for how median household income is changing throughout the year. That includes firms like Motio Research and institutions like the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which both provide monthly estimates of median household income.

How do these monthly estimates compare with the Census Bureau’s annual estimates? The answer to that question can be found in the following chart that shows their monthly estimates and a couple of others for the period from January 2000 through December 2023.

Monthly median household estimates based on monthly survey data collected through the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey were pioneered by Sentier Research, who covered the period from January 2000 through December 2019, after which the firm exited from business as its founders retired. In December 2023, Motio Research picked up that mantle, providing historic estimates back to January 2010.

In between, Political Calculations helped fill the gap for monthly median household income estimates using an alternate methodology that doesn’t rely on survey-based income data. Speaking of which, with the U.S. Census Bureau’s release of its annual estimate, we have revisited the data and revised our estimates for the period from March 2021 to the present, which we’ll discuss in greater detail in a separate post on the topic. We previously telescoped our method to generate monthly estimates of median household income backward to January 1986.

The Atlanta Fed doesn’t directly report its monthly median household income estimates but presents that data as part of its analysis of housing affordability.

Regardless of source and with rare exceptions, most monthly median household income estimates are within a few percentage points of each other and also the annual estimates produced by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.