ES Morning Update September 18th 2024
Well, today is the big day where most everyone is expecting the Fed to lower interest rates by at least 0.25%, possibly 0.50%. Will they do it or will they shock the market and do nothing… or worst, raise them! I don’t know the answer of course but the market has made new highs on the ES and SPX and the DOW too.
But not on the Nasdaq futures or cash, nor the Russell. So there’s divergences forming now between the indexes and I don’t see them making a higher high anytime soon. As for what will the Fed do today… I don’t know. But the rally up into the meeting scares me there’s a ton of people looking for this rate cut and are expecting much higher prices afterwards. When the masses are all thinking the same thing I have to think it’s not likely going to happen. Can we go higher afterwards? Sure but I don’t see a run up to 6000+ like I previously thought was possible.
Maybe we get a squeeze to 5800 but then again… maybe they surprise everyone and the market tanks. Most of the time the Fed doesn’t ever do anything to shake up the market, so if things go as “usual” then it will be a non-event and we’ll continue to grind higher until the daily chart gets too overbought. Right now it’s not and can push higher, but the weekly chart is still bearish, so any move up from here will be similar to paddling upstream in a canoe… meaning it’s not going to see big 200-300 points moves in a few days, but it can go up a little more.
Here’s my main wave count from 9/6 and it could still play out… but I don’t see 6000 as that’s too high and too predictable.
So, assuming there’s no surprise by the Fed, I think we are going to need more time before this market rolls over. This looks like it could drag out into the end of the month. Possible we squeeze to around 5800 and then pullback a few hundred points into the end of the month. Then rally back up one more time for a lower high into early October, which would be a wave 2 with the first pullback a wave 1 down. Then we see a 10%+ drop later that month. That’s my thought on it.
Have a blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2024/09/18/es-morning-update-september-18th-2024/
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