Pew poll shows slim majority of U.S. Catholics voting for Trump in November

Republican presidential nominee former president Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris debate for the first time during the presidential election campaign at the National Constitution Center on Sept. 10, 2024, in Philadelphia. / Credit: Win McNamee/Getty Images

CNA Staff, Sep 11, 2024 / 14:30 pm (CNA).

A new poll by Pew Research Center shows a slim majority of U.S. Catholics intending to cast their ballot for former president Donald Trump in November, with Trump and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat among the entire electorate as the election contest enters its final weeks. 

The poll, released Monday, found that “U.S. religious groups that traditionally have leaned Republican are backing former president Donald Trump by wide margins,” while groups that have historically backed Democrats “are mostly supporting Vice President Kamala Harris.”

Among Catholics, 52% said they were backing Trump in the race, compared with 47% who said they favored Harris. 

Trump’s support rose to 61% among white Catholics, while Harris commanded a sizable 65% share of Hispanic Catholics. 

An earlier Pew survey from February found that 42% of Catholics held a favorable view of Trump, compared with 57% with an unfavorable view. 

In contrast to Pew’s findings this week, an EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research survey released last week found Harris leading Trump among Catholic voters overall, with 50% of respondents backing Harris and 42% backing Trump. 

In that survey, the vice president also led Trump among Catholic African American voters 82% to 12%, and Catholic Asian voters 58% to 35%. Trump carried non-Hispanic white Catholic voters by 52% to 42%. 

The EWTN/RealClear poll, conducted Aug. 28–30, surveyed 1,000 Catholics and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The Pew poll, taken Aug. 26–Sept. 2, surveyed a total of 9,720 voters and recorded a margin of error of about 1.5 percentage points. 

In this week’s Pew survey, meanwhile, Trump saw majorities of support among white Protestants, while large majorities of atheists and agnostics are backing Harris, as are a whopping 86% of Black Protestants.

Overall, this week’s Pew survey found the two candidates in a dead heat, with 49% of respondents backing Trump and 49% supporting Harris. 

Pew said it found consensus among broad religious groups regarding the most prominent issues of the campaign, revealing, for instance, that “at least 6 in 10 registered voters in every religious group say the economy will be very important in their voting decision.” 

And “half or more in almost every religious group say the same about health care, Supreme Court appointments, and foreign policy.”