The Blueprint to Repel the Raiders

Offense

Feed the King

John Harbaugh said that the Ravens didn’t bring Derrick Henry to Baltimore to give him 30 touches a game. That may be true, but limiting the All-Pro to just five carries in the second half probably wasn’t what they envisioned, either. Henry turns football into a physical war of attrition against opposing defenses, wearing them down over the course of a game. His 13 carries for 46 yards against the Chiefs don’t jump off the box score, but Henry’s advanced metrics indicated that he put together a successful Ravens debut last week. He ranked in the top eight in both success rate and EPA/rush despite a rough run-blocking performance from his offensive line.

Despite the Ravens OL delivering a below avg run blocking performance, Derrick Henry averaged 0.13 EPA/run (8th best) & a 61.5% Success Rate (3rd best).
Promising start to the season IMO https://t.co/kS60IuSlpm

— Daniel Rees (@DPRees8) September 10, 2024

In Kansas City, the Ravens seemed to game-script themselves away from pounding the rock with Henry, preferring the receiving and protection skills of Justice Hill as they mixed in some no-huddle offense. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – Hill was one of the team’s best players on Thursday – but a team talking about balance on offense needs to find some.

The Ravens may run into some trouble against a stout Raiders front that gave the Chargers fits in Week 1. Las Vegas held their division rival to a 29.6% success rate and just 3.7 expected yards per carry, per NFL Pro. But Baltimore won’t need to have the same sense of urgency against the Raiders. They need to stay true to their identity and feed one of the best ballcarriers in football, even if they find themselves down during the game.

Think about all the times Jackson has executed a lengthy fourth-quarter drive with the lead to essentially kill the game. Imagine that, but with Derrick Henry. That’s where the Ravens need to get against the Raiders. Baltimore is undeniably more talented, and they need to lean on that talent to take and extend their lead before putting the game away in the second half.

Work from under center

One way to better work Henry into the gameplan is by operating from under center more often. The Ravens have used a lot of pistol and shotgun in the Lamar Jackson era to maximize the usage (and threat) of his legs. But with Henry in the backfield, Todd Monken can go under center to utilize the threat of his legs.

Henry has been devastating from single back and I formations in his career. Not only does he get more time to build up power – remember, mass x acceleration = force – but he also can better use his excellent ballcarrier vision to explode through holes in the defense.

Going to more under center runs has a few benefits beyond unleashing Henry. First, it takes some of the run-game burden away from Jackson. He went all-out to take down the Chiefs, understandably so, but missing a Monday practice after a Thursday game in Week 1 is hardly ideal. The Ravens always bat down sustainability questions, but there’s no denying that keeping Jackson as healthy as possible over the course of the season should be a priority.

Second, it opens up the threat of play action from under center, something the Ravens rarely used last season. That needs to change. Their offensive personnel is maximized to slam defenses with the run before drawing them in with a play fake to take a deep shot downfield.

A strong under center passing game is the best way for this team to do that. It’s crucial to their long-term offensive development; getting comfortable under center will give Monken more options later in the season. Using Jackson’s legs on boots adds another threat to defenses and takes pressure off the offensive line.

On those five dropbacks:

Used PA every time
Lamar went 4-4 for 33 yards
Receivers were open
If pass protection holds up on the strip-sack, Lamar hits Zay Flowers for a ~20 yard gain https://t.co/bmmzbXQ8We

— Gordon McGuinness (@PFF_Gordon) September 7, 2024

Week 1 was encouraging. The Ravens were efficient when they dropped back from under center, with their early blemish coming on the Chris Jones strip-sack. They need to stick with it and integrate it into their offense, to win on Sunday and in the long haul.

Better Protection Plan — blocking him with extra guys & moving away from Wilkins

Everyone knew the Ravens’ offensive line was going to be a work in progress, but Chris Jones’ game-wrecking and Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz packages made for an especially tough challenge to open the season. It doesn’t get much easier in Week 2. The Raiders’ duo of Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins will present a different, but equally difficult threat on Sunday.

Two key factors will determine if the Ravens can hold the pocket on offense. The first is the right side of the OL, where Daniel Faalele struggled in Week 1, allowing six pressures and an 11.5% pressure rate, per NFL Pro. Roger Rosengarten also allowed a pressure on two of his 13 snaps at right tackle when rotating in for Patrick Mekari, who finished with a 5.1% pressure rate.

The Ravens will need to balance their desire to give Mekari rest and Rosengarten experience with the very real threat that Crosby poses off the edge. Rosengarten’s weakness coming out of Washington was his anchor and strength against power rushers. He’s improved on that since arriving in Baltimore, but not enough to lock down one of the premier edge rushers in the game.

The Raiders will also try to overwhelm the right side of the OL and work a 1-on-1 matchup for one of their star linemen. One easy counter to that is to simply run the ball to the weak side, away from the Ravens’ weakness and the Raiders’ strength. In the pass game, though, Wilkins vs. Faalele does not feel like a winning matchup for Baltimore, so they’ll need to use double-teams on the interior and tight end help on the outside. (If Faalele struggles again, Ben Cleveland has to come into play, too. He had an excellent game against Wilkins when the latter was a member of the Dolphins last season.)

That help will be crucial if the other key element of the pass rush battle comes into play: the Raiders’ blitz rate. Las Vegas blitzed Justin Herbert at a 35.9% clip in Week 1, the fourth-highest in the league, but finished last season with a below-average 21.9% blitz rate.

If that aggression continues, the Ravens need better answers against the blitz than they had vs. the Chiefs. I wrote last week how Monken’s preference for quick-hitters into the flats against pressure looks would play right into Spagnuolo’s hands. It did.

Probably not too surprising, but Lamar Jackson’s 14 passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage in Week 1 were a career high.

9-for-14
34 yards
35.7% success rate ()
-0.64 EPA per attempt ()
21.4% pressure rate

( via @NextGenStats) pic.twitter.com/YPOStuMqhs

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) September 10, 2024

The Raiders don’t have the same talent at cornerback, but the Ravens still need to move away from the rushed bubble screens, swings, and checkdowns against the blitz. They need more trust and rhythm in their passing game – simple outs and hitches that get the ball out of Jackson’s hands on time without relying on playmakers to pick up yards from behind the line of scrimmage. Again, this is an opportunity to work on a long-term goal of this offense and combat a strategy that teams will continue to use against them throughout the year.

Defense 

Own the interior 

The Raiders offensive line has been the team’s weakness over the last few years, but the new Tom Telesco regime aimed to fortify the interior this offseason, extending Andre James, signing Cody Whitehair, and drafting Jackson Powers-Johnson. James started the game at center and finished as the only Raiders OL to not allow a single pressure on their 40 dropbacks, per NFL Pro.

The Ravens, meanwhile, relied on interior pressure to disrupt Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 with just four rushers. Zach Orr only blitzed at a 10% rate last week, but Travis Jones still recorded three pressures, plus two each from Nnamdi Madubuike and Broderick Washington, according to NFL Pro.

If the Ravens can beat the Chiefs’ talented interior blockers, then they should be able to get past the Raiders’ OL to get quick pressure on Gardner Minshew. His 4.4 air yards per attempt in Week 1 was the second-lowest of his career, but he went a perfect 13-13 on passes thrown in under 2.5 seconds, per NFL Pro. Minshew was getting the ball out quickly and efficiently, but rarely pushed the ball down the field, with just two attempts of 20 or more air yards.

However, the Chargers blitzed Minshew 32.5% of the time, allowing him to find open receivers quickly. If the Ravens can get pressure and force the ball out with just four rushers, they’ll have numbers in coverage to make plays at the catch point.

The Raiders also saw virtually no success running the ball outside of inside zone in Week 1.

Offensive Rushing Success Rates
(2024 Week 1)

The Lions (66.7%) and Ravens (65.2%) led in overall rushing success rate, excelling with Inside Zone and Outside Zone—the two most common run concepts.

The Raiders had only 3 successful rushes, all Inside Zone.

Data: @FTNData pic.twitter.com/T2buArZTG1

— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) September 10, 2024

Their 15.8% rushing success rate was dead-last in the NFL, with just three IZ rushes producing a positive EPA. If the Ravens can solidify their hold on the interior of the trenches, they can make the Raiders one-dimensional and let their pass-rushers loose.

Fortify the MoF 

The Chiefs consistently worked favorable matchups over the middle of the field in Week 1, isolating Rashee Rice against linebackers for chunk yardage. The Raiders will attempt to do the same, primarily using Brock Bowers and Jacobi Meyers, who combined for 52 snaps in the slot in Week 1, per Pro Football Focus. Four of Bowers’ six receptions came over the middle, while Meyers and Davante Adams recorded four catches and 95 yards in the same region.

The Raiders may try to mirror the Chiefs’ success by using empty sets, motioning a running back out of the backfield to occupy a cornerback and challenge the Ravens’ zone and match coverage rules.

oh definitely! Empty formations are a great way to get WRs on LBs. Another line of thinking for getting into Empty formations is that you can “waste” a CB on a lesser receiving weapon like a RB, FB or blocking TE.

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 6, 2024

There’s one easy answer for Baltimore: more Trenton Simpson, less Malik Harrison. Harrison has been a solid player in Baltimore, but he’s more of an early-down run defender than a pass coverage linebacker. Simpson is an ascending talent who needs the snaps to continue his development into a defensive chess piece alongside Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton. The numbers were clear:

An easy fix for the Ravens defense: Stop playing Malik Harrison next to Roquan Smith

Trenton Simpson on the field:
34 snaps
17.6% havoc rate
-0.11 EPA/play

Malik Harrison on the field:
15 snaps
0% havoc rate
-0.48 EPA/play

(Havoc rate = play with FF, INT, PBU, TFL, sack)

— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) September 6, 2024

Simpson has more athleticism, better coverage chops, and a stronger blitzing profile than Harrison. Minshew’s desire to get the ball out quickly means the Ravens need defenders who can close to the ball and tackle in the open field, something Simpson did very well in the preseason.

Simpson also allows the Ravens to play more man coverage by having him follow a running back out of the backfield. That might give away the defensive play call, but Baltimore has the talent advantage on their side. Orr needs to trust his personnel to win their matchups, both in the pass rush and in coverage downfield, and keep the Raiders from dictating the flow of the game.

Orr can also safely run the single-high safety looks against Minshew that he avoided against Mahomes, freeing up Kyle Hamilton to buzz over the middle more often to disrupt passing lanes. He played primarily in the slot and the box against the Chiefs, but they often used Kelce to take Hamilton away from the middle of the field. Bowers is still a threat, but the Ravens won’t have to shift around their resources to account for him as much, freeing up Hamilton to play a more attacking, versatile role.

Blitz and Bait

Minshew is known as a gunslinger, which made his cautious, quick-game approach in Week 1 so surprising. He must be itching to let loose, and the Ravens should invite his aggression and respond with some of their own.

Orr was more conservative against Mahomes, but he can really open up his playbook against the Raiders. That will start with blitz packages, bringing rushers from different levels and having players drop off the line of scrimmage into coverage. That will slow down Minshew’s processing and prevent him from getting the ball off as quickly as he did in Week 1. Early, consistent pressure on Minshew will let the Ravens set the terms on defense, choosing when they want to force underneath passes with soft zone coverage or work a big play with a man blitz.

Baltimore held serve against the Chiefs, stiffening with their backs against the wall with some short fields for the KC offense. Only a few mental lapses led to long touchdowns, something that Orr will be focused on heading into this week. The Raiders also don’t have the talent or coaching that the Chiefs do, so they’ll have a harder time breaking the Ravens’ coverages.

Once the Ravens get the Raiders on the back foot and playing from behind, Orr can unleash his array of simulated pressures and disguised coverages to up the pressure on Minshew, showing him multiple pressure packages and coverage looks from the same defensive alignment. Baltimore’s defense is talented enough to win this game on their own

Key Matchup

Brandon Stephens vs. Davante Adams

It might make more sense to line up Marlon Humphrey against the Raiders’ All-Pro WR, but two key factors will prevent that. First, opposing offense have tried to target Stephens with their WR1 since he stepped into a starting role. Second, Humphrey played 28 of his 54 Week 1 snaps in the slot. That will lead to more Stephens-Adams matchups throughout the game, yet another challenge for Baltimore’s ascending cornerback.

Brandon Stephens has plenty of athleticism to keep up with Adams off the line of scrimmage, but the crafty veteran is going to find ways to target the weaknesses of his matchup. Stephens has improved on his ability to get his head around and locate the ball downfield – he may have recorded the most PBUs of any Ravens defender in training camp – but Adams will look to manipulate Stephens at the catch point with head fakes and body positioning.

Stephens’ success last year came against a group of young, physical receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and George Pickens. Adams is a different challenge, someone who can beat corners in a variety of ways. He’ll gain steam throughout the matchup, using information from each rep to exploit Stephens on the next one. Stephens will have to maintain his physical style of play without getting too aggressive and letting Adams beat him downfield.

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