What has been missing from Alex Bregman so far?

Many Chicago Cubs hitters have been mired in a rough slump for nearly two weeks. The heat has primarily been on the likes of Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. While not slumping as those guys have, Alex Bregman is among those who want to up their game.

Bregman, to his credit, is hitting a respectable .286/.318/.381 over this 2-8 stretch the Cubs are on. So, it might seem weird to discuss one of the better-hitting Cubs within the topic of slumping. With that said, there are some deeper numbers to look at regarding Bregman.

What has been missing from Bregman so far

Referencing Bregman’s last 10 games to start, the average looks very good, but there is a common theme between this stretch and his overall season numbers. The lack of slug.

On the season, he is slashing .249/.332/.350 with a .682 OPS, four homers, and a 96 wRC+. The slug being well under .400, resulting in a sub-.700 OPS is what really sticks out. He has just two XBH over his last 10 games and 11 XBH on the year. His groundball rate is at 44%, which is just under nine points higher than his career 35.7% groundball rate, and that obviously has an impact on the results of balls in play.

The average is not amazing, but it’s not bad by today’s standards, and the OBP is very solid. Even the wRC+ being around average does not make Bregman’s overall first 49 as a Cub look that bad. But he was paid the big five-year contract to be a catalyst for this team, and he will be held to much higher standards.

Reasons not to be as hard on Bregman’s start

It’s worth noting that some of the underlying numbers suggest Bregman has been swinging a bit better than what the slash says.

His expected slug (xSLG) per Baseball Savant is .398, which is in the 47th percentile. Is that elite? No, but being around that .400 mark would be more palatable. It’s also worth noting his xBA is .256 (58th percentile), with his hard hit rate (64th percentile), and squared up percentage (95th percentile) all being better than average. He’s still elite at whiff rate (83rd percentile) and chase rate (92nd percentile), while above average in walk rate (68th percentile), which is reflected in his low strikeout rate (17.5%) and .332 OBP.

Hopefully, Bregman can put up some more productive numbers this summer. He is no stranger to starting the season slow. His lowest OPS months over his career have been March/April and May. The Cubs will need to see that sooner rather than later. Ideally after 162 he has a slug in the .440-.480 range and an OPS around .780-.820.

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