FEMA Warns! There Are Very Few Areas In The US Safe From a Nuclear Attack (Half of The US Population Would Need to Take Shelter For a Few Days to...

Here is a 1990 FEMA prediction, the last one FEMA made during the Cold War.

Could parts of the USA survive a nuclear war?

Not just ‘could,’ parts of the country would. Allen E Hall’s answer shows the destructive capability from Russia’s current arsenal.

In 1990, a FEMA analysis of a 6,139 nuclear strike on the United States (about 3 times Russia’s current arsenal) had more than half of the country’s population not only experiencing less than a fatal shockwave, but experiencing low radiation fallout.

I am copying part of my reiteration of the report from here:

Brian Collins’s answer to What would the world be like after a nuclear war?

Here are screenshots from the report. About half the of the US had a medium to very high fallout risk:

So basically, half of the US population would need to take shelter for a few days to 2 weeks, or risk radiation exposure in a 6,000 warhead strike.

In the high fallout areas, where deadly radiation would be hitting people for more than a week, this is what fatality rates would look like:

The Very High Fallout Risk Areas consist of places like New Jersey, Colorado, Massachusetts, New York City, as well as some rural states with silos or downwind from silos like Nebraska, Montana, North Dakota.

In medium risk areas, the estimate looked like this:

Half of the US population is at risk of a blast of 2 pounds per square inch, a potentially fatal shock wave:

Some segment of the US population within the 2 PSI risk area will die. 50% was about 26% of the 1990s US population.

Today, the percentage would maybe be 10% higher, because the US is a bit more urban now than it was in 1990s, however Russia also has 4,000 fewer nukes than the 6,000 warhead estimate. I think blast casualties would be more than 10–15% of the US population, though much lower at night.

In American cities, most of the population is a daytime working population. Most Americans live at least 10 miles from where they work, with almost 10% of the population living more than 35 miles from work:

FEMA went off of 6,139 nuclear strikes in their estimate for the first strike.

After this strike, FEMA estimates the next generation of Americans born in very high radiation areas would look like this:

And in Medium Risk areas:

You can find the original documents here:

Originally FEMA made a collection of maps based on each state. I will try to turn this into a map someday, but for now… Here’s a graphic based on it:

A city like Los Angeles might experience multiple nuclear explosions, as one might hit the a government office, then another might hit the LA Air Force Base. The area around New York would also be hit multiple times: probably one in New York city and then several in New Jersey US military bases.

Most of the country though would not be hit with a saturated attack like that. My home state of Washington would probably be have been hit like this in 1990s:

Here’s what the fallout would look like:

And here’s California:

and here’s the fallout:

So, even if Russia had 6,134 nukes (instead of 1,800), and launched a counter value attack which deliberately targeted civilian areas, some parts of the country would survive.

Divide the number of nuke strikes in Washington and California by 3, and you are basically left with nothing but military bases, dams, and a few chemical plants (some military bases are in the middle of a city) being hit directly. Assuming Russia hit the city centres, the suburbs still survive.

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