Wind and the President Trump Assassination Attempt

Satellite view of the assassination attempt location at Butler Farm Show in Pennsylvania, Google maps, with lines and text added by Dean Weingarten

There has been speculation about the effect of wind on the trajectory of the bullets fired at Presidential Candidate, former President, Donald Trump. According to media reports the would be assassin fired from a position North of Donald Trump, about 130 meters away.

Measurement on google maps put the distance at about 441 feet, 147 yards, or 134 meters.  This is close to the BBC estimate of 130 meters for the shot. The direction of the shot was from North to South at about 20 degrees East of North toward 20 degrees West of South.  Meridian Rd, on the right side of the image runs North/South.

Fortunately, there is a weather station in Butler, less than five miles away, almost due East. Station KPABUTLE38 recorded wind direction and speed on July 13, 2024. The assassination attempt happened about 6:12 P.M. Here are the wind speeds and directions recorded five miles away during that period:

Meteorological measurements taken about five miles East of Butler Farm Show on July 13, 2024.

The winds were mostly light and variable. Consider the directions shown for the winds from 5:59 P.M. to 6:29 P.M. The varied considerably, from SE, WSW, South, North, SSW, SW, and WSW.   WNW or ESE would be the closest cardinal directions to be direct cross winds to the line of fire. Because the wind was so variable, it is possible there was a direct cross wind, but the odds favor a wind about 45 degrees or less to the line of fire. Gusts were recorded of up to 8.9 mph.

A direct cross wind of 5 mph would result in a standard 5.56 round being moved by the wind about 1.15 inches cross to the line of fire at 150 yards.

An examination of flags flying near the Butler Farm venue, taken from video time stamped at the event, might give us a more accurate picture of the wind direction when the shot was fired. It seems unlikely wind was a strong contributor to the would be assassin missing the shots taken.

With wind as variable as it was that day, a wind effect can not be ruled out. It is possible a gust of wind from the WNW at about 9 mph could have occurred at the moment of the shot. Such a gust would have moved the bullet 2.06 inches to the left of the person firing the shot, or to the right of Donald Trump.  That could have been the difference between a wound to the ear or death for the former president and presidential candidate.

Combine a possible wind effect with the turning of Donald Trump’s head, and the inherent variation in ammunition and rifles,  and the would be assassin could have held dead on, and still only scored an ear for their efforts if the variables combined to move the bullet to the right of Donald Trump as his head moved to the left. It is well known, in the hunting fields, that game can move, just as a shot is fired, resulting in a missed shot.

Variable wind, such as occurred on the day of the attempted assassination, can make precise shots difficult for expert shooters. On such a small scale, trees and buildings create eddies in the wind, further complicating the picture. When the wind can come from many directions, judging windage is mostly an educated guess.

©2024 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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