FRANCE: French Prime Minister Bayrou Meets the Gallows

Political turmoil has once again gripped France as Prime Minister François Bayrou’s minority government faced a major setback. Just nine months into his tenure, Bayrou’s fate was sealed when he lost a key confidence vote in parliament yesterday, with 364 deputies rejecting him compared to 194 who stood by him. This decisive outcome has now thrust President Emmanuel Macron into the challenging position of searching for a new head of government. Bayrou had risked it all by calling for this vote, banking on the support of MPs for his ambitious plan to slash spending and tackle the soaring national debt. The stakes were high, but the outcome has sent shockwaves through the French political landscape.

Emmanuel Macron’s office has just announced that the president is ready to accept François Bayrou’s resignation on Tuesday, with plans to appoint a replacement “in the next few days.” According to the French Constitution, the Prime Minister can stay on in an interim capacity to manage day-to-day affairs until a new leader is in place.  Over the past two years, France has already navigated through interim governments twice—first from July to September 2024 following the resignation of Gabriel Attal’s government, and again in December 2024 after the fall of Michel Barnier’s administration. Now, Macron faces an important crossroads: he can either choose a new prime minister who can effectively navigate a divided parliament or opt to dissolve the National Assembly and call for early elections. So far, he has steered clear of the latter choice. 

If the president decides to call for new elections, the Constitution specifies that they must take place within 20 to 40 days following the dissolution. We can anticipate the French president will appoint a prime minister from the party that secures the most seats, although there’s no constitutional requirement to do so. In cases where a single party achieves an absolute majority, the president would practically be compelled to choose one of its members as prime minister. This scenario, referred to as “cohabitation,” has already happened three times during the Fifth Republic.

Speculations are running wild around who might step into the spotlight as potential successors. Among the contenders from the left are the Socialist leader Olivier Faure, the former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, and Pierre Moscovici, currently serving as the president of the Court of Auditors. In Macron’s camp, Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Labour Minister Catherine Vautrin are shaping up to be his most promising options.

Amid the swirling political turbulence, France is grappling with significant social unrest as well. A left-wing group known as “Bloquons Tout” (“Let’s Block Everything”), a movement which echoes the Yellow Vests, is mobilising support for a major action (blockage) day on Wednesday, September 10. Although the movement’s origin remains unclear, it quickly captured the hearts and minds of people online and on encrypted messaging platforms, stirring excitement beyond the usual boundaries of unions, politics, or organised groups, rallying support in an unprecedented manner.  Meanwhile, trade unions are rallying workers to join in a strike on September 18. It’s a pivotal moment that could shape the country’s sociopolitical landscape.

IMAGE: “Bloquons Tout”  –  The Movement to watch.

Emmanuel Macron now faces two choices: appoint a new Prime Minister who can navigate a divided Parliament, or dissolve the National Assembly and call for early elections. So far, he has refrained from the latter option…

IMAGE: In July 2025, only 19% of French people were satisfied with President Emmanuel Macron, down four points in a month, and 18% with his Prime Minister François Bayrou (Source: Tom Nicholson/AFP)

RFI editorial team reports on the ousting of French Prime Minister Bayrou…

After François Bayrou, the scenarios of a France at an impasse

The fall of the Bayrou government, made official by the predictable failure of the confidence vote, marks a new turning point in the political crisis that has rocked France for over a year. Four prime ministers in 20 months: never before has the Fifth Republic experienced such a waltz at Matignon. But the fall of François Bayrou is not just another episode in the chronicle of disorder: it ushers in a period of extreme uncertainty.

Since the 2024 snap parliamentary elections, the French Parliament has been divided into nearly irreconcilable blocs. None has managed to impose a stable majority, and attempts at compromise have remained a dead letter. ”  The political equation to be resolved is almost insoluble,” summarises political scientist Olivier Rouquan on RFI, pointing to the unprecedented fragmentation and polarisation of national representation.

Matignon, the puzzle of the “  five-legged sheep  ”

In this context, appointing a new Prime Minister is an impossible challenge. Neither the right nor the left seems capable of building a sufficiently broad base. Civil society remains an option, but this is also a dangerous gamble: someone without a solid political base risks finding themselves isolated. ”  There is talk of a technical profile, like in Italy, but the French configuration is different. Even a technician will have to manoeuvre in a highly fragmented and polarised Assembly. There is no guarantee that they will succeed better than an experienced politician,” analyses Olivier Rouquan.

Could the president rely on a loyal member of his own camp? Names are circulating, such as Sébastien Lecornu and Catherine Vautrin. Despite the failure of Michel Barnier and then François Bayrou, will Emmanuel Macron try the experiment again? Perhaps, if he is still not ready to compromise on his economic policy and remains convinced that the central bloc is best able to find a majority. But whatever happens, the manoeuvre would offer no guarantee of stability: ”  The parties that could help maintain a minority government are themselves divided,” the political scientist emphasises.

The temptation of a left-leaning government, championed by Olivier Faure’s Socialist Party, which claims to be ”  ready  ” to succeed Bayrou, remains fragile. ” What is the real interest of the Socialist Party today in getting into this mess? The next elections are not so far away, and even if the budget is less severe, it will not be a budget of abundance,”Olivier Rouquan points out. The researcher sees this strategy as a communication stance rather than a credible solution.”  The hypothesis of the Socialist Party as the centre of gravity of a government seems weak to me,” he adds, while qualifying: “There have been a lot of surprises lately.“

Dissolution or interim: the impasse at the ballot box

The alternative of dissolving the Assembly, demanded by the National Rally (RN) and supported by a majority of French people according to polls, appears just as risky. Projections put the RN in the lead, but without an absolute majority, which would only perpetuate the paralysis. Emmanuel Macron seems opposed to this, especially since early elections would benefit the opposition. ”  If there are legislative elections, it is likely that the centre will be further weakened, replacing the crisis with another crisis,” warns historian Andrew WM Smith, interviewed by France 24.

As for the transition scenario with a government handling current affairs, it is no longer attractive. A prolonged interim would only prolong the uncertainty, accentuate distrust and political indolence, while the opposition is outdoing itself in its criticism of Emmanuel Macron. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has gone so far as to call for the president’s resignation and the organisation of an early presidential election. While the head of state has so far refused any compromise, ”  he finds himself alone and will be forced to clarify, to explain his point of view,” notes Olivier Rouquan.

The street, the new arbiter of the crisis?

This impasse is not just a matter of parliamentary arithmetic: it reflects a profound rupture between society and its representatives. The discredit affecting the executive is massive: according to a Verian survey for Le Figaro Magazine, only 15% of French people trust Emmanuel Macron to emerge from the crisis, a historically low score. The rejection of François Bayrou’s austerity plan – freezing benefits, eliminating public holidays – has only crystallised distrust, while the prospect of a new minority government is, above all, arousing scepticism.

Adding to the institutional crisis is the threat of a social conflagration. The “Block Everything” movement is calling for a nationwide shutdown starting September 10, while unions are announcing a day of strikes and demonstrations on the 18th. The scale of these mobilisations remains uncertain, but they are worrying the government. ”  Many French people are not at peace with what they are experiencing; there is mistrust. This creates a cocktail that adds uncertainty and could have a direct impact on the Assembly,” warns the political scientist.

Sociologist Marion Carrel even described to the Guardian a ”  pre-revolutionary climate,” fueled by rising inequality, the deterioration of public services, and the conviction that ”  ordinary people are not being listened to  .” The risk of social unrest spreading to the political sphere is all the greater as traditional parties struggle to embody a credible alternative. Added to this is the prospect of financial markets becoming increasingly tense in the face of such instability.

The shadow of the RN

Faced with this vacuum, the National Rally is advancing its pawns, taking advantage of the discrediting of the governing parties and an anxious economic climate. ”  The National Rally has a program, a vision of the world; the question is to know what counter-proposal the other political forces are capable of putting forward,” insists political scientist Niagale Bagayoko. As long as the left does not assume ”  the courage to rethink the tax issue and the role of the state,” the National Rally will be able to thrive on the feeling of abandonment in part of the country.

Because beyond the government’s casting, it is the French political system’s ability to reinvent itself that is at stake. The current situation highlights the urgent need for a culture of compromise, a renewal of the social pact, and the restoration of democratic trust. ”  As long as there is no real programmatic reflection to change the software, we will remain in this type of crisis,” concludes Niagale Bagayoko. The fall of François Bayrou confirms the deep institutional crisis the country is going through, a regime without a majority and under social tension.

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Source: https://21stcenturywire.com/2025/09/09/france-french-prime-minister-bayrou-meets-the-gallows/