11 Countries That Will Likely to Collapse by 2040

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Predicting outright state collapse is inherently uncertain, but by 2040 several countries face materially elevated risk of severe state failure or collapse of central authority—meaning loss of effective governance over significant territory, large-scale internal conflict, or fragmentation. The following list identifies countries widely judged vulnerable by analysts, with the dominant factors driving risk for each. This is a probabilistic assessment (not a deterministic forecast); risks arise from combinations of governance failure, economic stress, demography, external interference, and climate and resource shocks.

High-risk (elevated probability of major failure or fragmentation by 2040)

• Sudan
  • Key drivers: persistent civil war since 2023 between military and multiple paramilitary factions; fractured elites; collapsed economy; humanitarian catastrophe; regional proxy interventions; armed militias controlling territory. Absent a credible peace process and restoration of basic services, continued fragmentation and local warlord rule remain likely.

• Libya
  • Key drivers: enduring rival governments and militias since 2011; localized war economies centered on oil; weak institutions; foreign military involvement from regional powers; fragmented security forces. Elections and stabilization have repeatedly failed; continuation of de facto partition or recurring armed confrontations is plausible.
• Somalia
  • Key drivers: decades of weak central institutions; resilient Islamist insurgency (al-Shabaab); clan fragmentation; recurring drought and food crises; limited revenue base and heavy external dependence. Federal government holds territory intermittently; risk centers on further territorial losses to non-state actors and de facto regional autonomy.
• Yemen
  • Key drivers: prolonged civil war (Houthi vs. internationally recognized government and southern movements), foreign intervention (Saudi/UAE, Iran-backed dynamics), collapsed public services, famine risk, and multiple competing authorities in north and south. A negotiated nationwide settlement before 2040 is possible but not assured; continued partition or frozen conflict is likely without major shifts.

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Significant-concern (substantial vulnerability, where collapse is a realistic tail outcome under adverse shocks)

• Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
  • Key drivers: vast territory with weak state reach, numerous armed groups in the east, fragile institutions, resource-driven local conflicts, poor infrastructure, and refugee flows. A regional conflagration or intensified localized state retreat could yield large-scale governance collapse in parts of the country.

• Haiti
  • Key drivers: chronic political instability, powerful gangs controlling large urban areas (Port-au-Prince), weak security forces, economic collapse, natural disasters, and limited institutional capacity. Without decisive security reform and economic stabilization, de facto governance vacuums and quasi-failed-state dynamics will likely persist or worsen.
• Afghanistan
  • Key drivers: the Taliban’s hold since 2021 has not produced unified, durable governance across ethnic lines; economic collapse, international isolation, insurgent pockets, factionalism, and climate-driven shocks. The risk is not classic internationalized collapse but fragmentation, governance breakdown in provinces, and potential return of competing armed groups.
• South Sudan
  • Key drivers: weak institutions since independence, ethnicized politics, recurrent violence, dependence on oil revenues, poor service delivery, and climate stress on pastoralist livelihoods. Recurrent localized breakdowns remain likely; a full reversion to widespread civil war is a significant tail risk.

Medium-concern (fragility that could tip under severe economic, political, or climate shocks)

• Lebanon
  • Key drivers: economic meltdown, currency collapse, sectarian/political paralysis, refugee burden, and state delegitimization. Collapse into prolonged governance paralysis and localized militias is possible if economic conditions and patronage networks deteriorate further.
• Pakistan
  • Key drivers: economic crisis, political-military friction, extremist insurgency pockets, water scarcity, and institutional fragility. Full state collapse is low-probability, but severe governance crises, localized breakdowns, or loss of state capacity in border regions could occur under large shocks.
• Nigeria
  • Key drivers: insurgency in the northeast (Boko Haram/IS affiliate), banditry and farmer–herder conflict in the middle belt, separatist pressures in the southeast, weak logistics and constrained fiscal space. Collapse of the whole state is unlikely, but protracted fragmentation or long-term erosion of state authority in large regions is a material risk.

Cross-cutting systemic factors that increase collapse risk

• Weak political institutions and elite fragmentation: personalized rule, lack of legitimate inter-group power-sharing, or competing centers of power increase likelihood of violence and devolution of authority.
• Economic collapse and fiscal insolvency: hyperinflation, loss of export revenue (commodity shocks), unsustainable debt, and inability to pay security forces degrade state capacity rapidly.
• Prolonged armed conflict and proliferation of non-state armed actors: when militias, insurgents, or criminal gangs control territory and revenue streams, central authority becomes nominal.
• External interference and proxy wars: foreign militaries, weapons flows, and proxy backers extend and complicate domestic conflicts, preventing settlement.
• Climate change and resource stress: droughts, floods, crop failures, and water scarcity exacerbate displacement, food insecurity, and competition over land.
• Demographic pressures and youth unemployment: large cohorts of unemployed young people create recruitment pools for armed groups and increase social volatility.
• Humanitarian crises and displacement: mass refugee movements and internal displacement overload state and regional systems, eroding legitimacy and control.

How to interpret this assessment

• Collapse is not binary; states often move into zones of partial failure where central control coexists with autonomous regions, militia rule, or competing authorities. The list above highlights countries where such severe deterioration is plausible by 2040 if current trajectories persist or if adverse shocks occur.
• Time horizons and probabilities matter: some countries face near-term high risk (next few years), others face chronic fragility that could tip under repeated or large shocks before 2040.
• External and internal policy choices matter: international mediation, targeted economic support, inclusive political settlements, and climate adaptation can materially change trajectories.

Indicators to watch through 2040 (early warning)

• Sharp collapse in government revenue and public-sector payrolls (security forces unpaid).
• Loss of monopoly on violence in large population centers or resource-producing regions.
• Rapid increases in internally displaced people and refugee flows across borders.
• Significant foreign military bases, covert arms flows, or open proxy deployments.
• Breakdown in basic services (electricity, health, food distribution) for sustained periods.

Sources and limits

• This assessment synthesizes patterns observed in conflict studies, fragile-states indices, UN humanitarian reporting, and regional expert analyses through May 2024. New diplomatic settlements, reform breakthroughs, or large-scale international interventions could alter trajectories before 2040.

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