NICS Data Shows Steady Firearm Sales in October 2025, Nearly Unchanged from Last Year

The adjusted National Instant background Check System (NICS) numbers from the FBI show almost no change for firearms sales and for back ground checks, comparing October 2025 with October 2024. There has been a very small decrease in the adjusted firearms sales from 1.303 million to 1.299 million sales, a difference of about .3 percent of sales. The total NICS background checks fell from 2.298 million to 2.289 million, about  a .4 percent decrease of background checks. There are only four Octobers in the last 26 which have numbers higher than than those in 2024 and 2025. 

During the 26 year record keeping of the NICS numbers, all Octobers except for October 2021 show a higher number of NICS background checks than they do for September of the same year. October is well into hunting season for many states. 2021 was the second highest year for gun sales on record. The record year for gun sales in October was in 2020, the presidential election year. Only the presidential year of (Trumpian) 2016 shows more gun sales in the United States than occurred in any of the four years of the Biden administration and the presidential election year of 2020. Firearm sales are a reasonable indicator of the level of discontent in the electorate.

The assassination of Charlie Kirk reminded many Americans of how fragile and dangerous our domestic political situation has become. There have been other periods in our history where danger lurked at least as much. Such was the situation in the colonial period, before the United States became independent. Such existed during the Revolutionary war. Such existed on the frontier with continuing war and raids from Indian tribes up until 1900. During the same period Texans experienced the worse as they fought for and gained independence from a Mexican government which had become tyrannical; then during the fratricidal war between the states, which brought death tolls to all the States and significant destruction to about half.

Since 1900, war at home has only been experienced in Hawaii, Alaska, and California. We had a significant attempt by the Left to start an insurrection in the late 1960s-1970s, but it was wiped out.

911 rekindled a sense of vulnerability which has not departed. It was a sort of renewal of the Barbary Wars against Muslims who view others as legitimate prey. It continues today. The off-off year election victories in Virginia, New York, and New Jersey by the radical Left, will keep the sense of vulnerability and fragility alive.

Only when a decisive victory is won, such as the left losing the next mid-term elections and the next Presidential election will we be poised to enter another golden age, such as we had in the 1950s. The potential exists in accelerating new technologies. They could give the productivity boost required. It can happen.

The downside is the demand for defensive weapons decreases with a golden age. The bonus is the demand for recreation increases.

The number of modern firearms in private hands continues to increase in the United States month by month. We arrived at about 533 million firearms in the private stock at the end of May, 2025. In the five months since that date, we have added about another five million, to bring the total to 538 million. Of the 538 million, over 240 million have been added during the last 20 years.

©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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