ATF Data Reveals PMFs Account for a Fraction of Firearm Traces

Data table from ATF

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) released a report in 2024 detailing updated data about traces involving Privately Made Firearms (PMF), sometimes referred to as “ghost guns” in the media. The data covers traces from 2017 through 2023. ATF also publishes overall trace data for firearms for the covered years.

The total number firearms traced in the seven years 2017-2023 was 288,0257. Of those, PMF traced are 92,702, or 3.2% of the total.  The number of PMFs traced has been growing. In 2023, 5.4% of the total firearms traced were PMFs. Of the total homicides involving firearms from 2017 to 2023, only 1.5% were associated with PMFs. There were 1,349 homicides associated with PMFs and 87,341 homicides associated with manufactured firearms. For manufactured firearms, there were .031 homicides per trace; for PMFs there were .015 homicides per trace.

There were more than twice as many homicides per manufactured firearms traced as there were homicides for Privately Made Firearms  (PMF) traced.  

The ATF data showed how many traces were associated with attempted homicides. For manufactured firearms, there were .0054 attempted homicides associated with firearms per trace.  For PMF, there were .0037 attempted homicides per trace. Of total homicides and attempted homicides associated with manufacured firearms, attempted homicides were 15%. Of total homicides and attempted homicides with PMF, attempted homicides were 20%.  It appears homicide attempts with PMF are less likely to result in death.

Not only were PMF less than half as likely to be used in a homicide per trace, when attempted homicides are considered, PMF are less likely to result in a death. 

Homicides and attempted homicides are involved in a small amount of firearms traces. They are associated with about .036 of traces of manufactured firearms and about .019 of traces of PMF.  Most traces of manufactured firearms are for victimless crimes such as possession, firearm under investigation, and carrying a concealed weapon. These account for about 67% of traces of PMF and about 60% of traces for manufactured firearms. Of manufactured firearms traced, 80.4% are handguns. Of PMF traced, 64% are handguns.

If Privately Made Firearms are traced at roughly the same percentage as manufactured firearms in the United States, then approximately 3.2% of the private stock consists of PMF or about .032 x 500 million or 16 million PMF in the United States. If the latest figures from 2023 are used, .054 x 500 million or 27 million PMF exist in the United States.

It is likely PMF are oversampled in firearms traces because of administrative emphasis on recording PMF.  Some states have statutorily criminalized PMF possession; this could explain the higher level of victimless crimes in the PMF statistics. 56% of PMF traces are from California, Illinois, and Maryland.

PMF are difficult to trace because they lack a serial number. They are no more difficult to trace than most of the 500 million firearms in the USA. Once a firearm has been sold, there is no registration system in the USA, only an ability to trace the firearm to the first retail sale. Privately sold, gifted, or inherited firearms are not easily traced after a few years. Firearms more than 20 years old become practically untraceable. Stolen firearms become virtually untraceable. Firearms registration by the Federal government is illegal in the USA and in some states. Few states register firearms.  The practice of firearm registration is Constitutionally suspect. Almost 300 million firearms in the United States are more than 20 years old.

Analysis: Firearms traces are seldom used to solve violent crimes. Tens of millions of dollars are spent on firearms registration. In Canada, over a period of 60 years and tens of thousands of police hours, the Canadian Department of Justice could not identify a single instance where handgun registration helped to solve a crime. If the same resources were used for police and detective work, many lives could be saved and crimes prevented. Resources are limited. It is best to use them wisely. Private individuals have been making their own firearms since well before the Constitution was ratified. The tradition will continue. It is a time honored part of the right to keep and bear arms.

©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch