Global Atrocity Risks Rising, Warns New United Nations Adviser on Genocide Prevention

He cited the worsening violence in Sudan as one of the most urgent examples. The Darfur conflict, first investigated by a UN commission in the 1990s, continues to spiral decades later. “Nothing has changed,” he said. “The fall of the civilian government has only exacerbated the crisis.”

© UNICEF/Mohammed Jamal | Families fleeing violence in Darfur arrive at a camp for displaced people.

Early warning system

The Office on the Prevention of Genocide and the Responsibility to Protect functions as an early warning system within the UN. It alerts the Secretary-General, the Security Council and the wider UN system – in that order – when the risk of atrocity crimes, including genocide, is detected. 

Drawing on the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and legal opinions on genocide-related court cases, the Office monitors and analyzes 14 factors ranging from armed conflict involving ethnic or religious groups, to hate speech, and the collapse of the rule of law, among others. 

*Article II of the genocide convention.

When these risks show a violent pattern, Mr. Beyani issues advisories and coordinates responses with UN officials, maintaining close links with regional organizations like the African Union and the European Union, and other international mechanisms. 

“Once our Office sounds the alarm, it signals that the threshold is about to be crossed,” he said.

“Our role is not to determine genocide but to prevent it,” Mr. Beyani emphasized, stressing that his Office defers to international courts to determine whether the crime has been committed. 

Breaking the silence

The Special Adviser also underscored the important role of courts and justice in the protection of vulnerable people. 

“The one thing that you want to do in the context of dealing with atrocities is to make aware those who are participating in conflicts that they’re being watched and monitored,” Mr. Beyani said.

An example is the International Criminal Court’s conviction of Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga in 2012 for recruiting child soldiers. This led other warlords to publicly denounce child recruitment.

He also referenced the International Court of Justice provisional measures issued under the obligation of prevention of genocide in the application of the Genocide Convention in Gaza, in the case of South Africa versus Israel. 

Among other cases, the ICJ will next year hear the full case brought by The Gambia against Myanmar, also on the application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. 

“Prevention includes accountability,” the Special Adviser said. 

Unsplash/Priscilla du Preez | Governments and Internet companies are failing to meet challenges of online hate.

Emerging threats 

Among emerging threats which Mr. Beyani’s Office monitors are misinformation and hate speech. His Office works with technology companies like Meta and Google to address online incitement, and with religious and community leaders to counter hate narratives at the local level. 

Environmental degradation and climate change are also becoming catalysts for conflict. 

He said that the UN Security Council was right to be looking at environmental degradation as a security risk, as it did during a debate on 6 November: “We are seeing resource-based tensions, from the Sahel to small island states at risk of submersion. Climate change itself is not causal, but it amplifies other risk factors.”   

The adviser noted that indigenous communities, often targeted in disputes over land and natural resources, are among the groups most in need of protection.

“Extraction industries and deliberate actions against them put them at enormous risk,” he said. “Their identity and way of life make them particularly vulnerable.”

Despite the gravity of his mandate, the Special Adviser remains focused on diplomacy and prevention over public condemnation.

“This Office was designed to engage quietly, to advise the UN Secretary-General and the Security Council, and to make public statements when necessary,” he explained. “States see it as threatening in some respects.”

Looking ahead, the Special Adviser emphasized that prevention requires memory as much as action. 

“Commemoration of past genocides reminds us of the UN’s founding promise of ‘never again,’ and the basis upon which the Genocide Convention stands” he said, noting preparations for the International Day of Commemoration and Dignity of the Victims of the Crime of Genocide and of the Prevention of this Crime on December 9.

“But remembrance alone is not enough. We must strengthen our tools, build trust, and act early.”