NICS for February, 2026 -Gun Sales Increase, Checks Decrease

In February of 2026, the National Instant background Check System (NICS) data, as compiled by the National Shooting Sports Foundation, shows gun sales are up 3.5% while background checks are down 13.5%, compared to February data for 2025. From NSSF:

The February 2026 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,265,320 is an increase of 3.5 percent compared to the February 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,222,980. For comparison, the unadjusted February 2026 FBI NICS figure of 1,933,972 reflects a 13.5 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 2,236,637 in February 2025.

Looking at the NICS figures from the FBI, by Month, Year, by State and Type,February totals for permits and permit rechecks, 2026 were 378921 and 291731, with the total background check numbers at 1933972. In February of 2025  the permit and permit recheck numbers were 360126 and 655531. The total background check numbers totaled 2236637,

The drop in permit an permit rechecks from February 2025 to February 2026 was  345K. The total drop in background checks from February 2025 to February 2026 was 302K. The drop in permit and permit rechecks accounted for more than the total drop in background checks.

At the Crime Prevention Research Center, a slight drop in concealed carry permits has been occurring. This was attributed to the increase in Constitutional Carry (permitless carry), which is now up to 29 states. Such a drop could explain the drop in the numbers of background checks being done for firearms permits and permit rechecks. Permit and permit rechecks have gone up and down, complicating the correlation between NICS background checks and firearm sales. They are the major reason the NSSF adjusted NICS is a much better measure of firearm sales. The adjusted numbers remove the NICS background checks done for permits and permit rechecks.

Looking at the 27 year history of NSSF Adjusted NICS, which is a reasonable proxy for firearm sales conducted through the NICS system, firearm sales are close to what they have been in the month of February since 2012, with 2013 and 2016 years of spikes up and 2019 being a substantial drop. Those years correspond to the year after the re-election of President Barack Obama and the election year for the first term of  President Donald Trump.

The drop in sales in 2019 is correlated to a positive economy in the third year of the first Trump administration. The NICS background check numbers, even the NSSF adjusted numbers,  have not been adjusted for population growth. The population of the United States has grown about 22% since 2000.  Gun sales have increased considerably more than population grown, roughly 108%.  If you look hard, you may see an upward climb in gun sales in 2009, the year after the Heller decision at the Supreme Court officially recognized the Second Amendment as a fundamental enumerated right in the Bill of Rights.

The reasons for the 3.5% increase in gun sales  February 2026 compared to February 2025 are not clear or obvious. The economy has improved. President Trump has acted decisively in foreign affairs, even though the war on Iran was relatively quiet at the end of February.  Perhaps Americans have a bit more money and a bit more stability than in February of 2025. It is possible people on the far left are seeing the advantages of the Second Amendment and are purchasing firearms.

©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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