NICS Numbers March 2026, Gun Sales up, Background Checks Down

The National Instant background Check System (NICS) numbers for March of 2026 are in. According to the NSSF, adusted background checks, with give an approximation of firearm sales, are up 1.9 percent. Unadjusted NICS background checks are down 10.5 percent. This is consistent with a disconnect between firearm sales and NICS background checks.

The NICS is being used for more and more background checks which are not directly related to firearm sales. Chief among these are background checks for firearm carry permits and other firearm permits. As more states have become Constitutional Carry or permitless carry states, and as some states have stopped monthly background checks, the correlation between total NICS background checks and adjusted back ground checks to approximate NICS firearm sales has come to vary significantly.

Looking at the NICS adjusted data over the last twelve months from the NSSF, the first quarter (three months) of 2026 is slightly greater than the first quarter of 2025. The difference in the two years is not great, but adjusted sales in the last quarter of 2025 were definitely lower than in the last quarter of 2026.

One obvious reason for the difference is the conflict in the Middle East with Iran, where President Trump is fulfilling promises made over at least 15 years. Firearm sales are often driven by uncertainty. This hotter phase of the war with Iran, which has been ongoing for 47 years, has the additional effect of offering President Trump’s opponents opportunities to attack him, as the final outcome has yet to be determined. Uncertainty abroad and domestically exists.  In addition, NICS sales are benefiting from National Firearms Act sales, which are more than double in the first quarter of 2026 over 2025. According to the NSSF, those sales added more than 130,000 additional sales in the first quarter.

Analysis:

This correspondent expects the outcome of the massive destruction the United States and Israeli forces are inflicting on the Iranian theocracy will produce a resolution by the end of April, 2026, as predicted by the Trump administration. Firearm sales will continue to be bumped up in April. After April, two things are likely. The world will be more stable due to a tamed Iran, which will no longer be sponsoring terrorism. The domestic situation will be more stable with falling energy prices and a victorious Trump administration. If those predictions come true, firearms sales would level off or decrease in May and June, which are months when firearm sales normally drop.

©2026 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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