June NICS Checks Jump as NFA Background Checks Surge 177%

The National Instant background Check System (NICS) shows significantly higher numbers for the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) adjusted NICS checks for June of 2026. The total NICS checks show only a small decrease. From NSSF:

The June 2026 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,123,006 is an increase of 11.7 percent compared to the June 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,004,986. For comparison, the unadjusted June 2026 FBI NICS figure of 1,886,539 reflects a 1.2 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 1,909,294 in June 2025.

The adjusted NICS checks are designed to approximate actual firearm sales by removing the large numbers of NICS checks which are used for firearms permits and firearm permit rechecks.  In some months of previous years, the number of checks done for permits and permit rechecks exceeded the number done for sales. Those excesses, primarily done in Illinois, have been reduced. The adjusted NICS checks appear to be a good approximation of firearm sales done through the NICS system. Some people are able to purchase firearms without NICS checks. There are about 28 states which have at least one type of permit where the permit is a valid substitute for a NICS check. More than one firearm may be purchased with one NICS background check.

This year, the NSSF has started listing checks done for the National Firearms Act. There is a time lag between when a check is done and an NFA firearm is built or transferred. The number of checks for NFA purposes do not directly correspond to new firearms or suppressors. Silencers/suppressors are defined as “firearms” in the NFA.

The June number for National Firearms Act (NFA) checks was 166,677, an increase of 177.1 percent from June of 2025. The number for June of 2025 was 60,147. Another way to state the same statistic, the NFA checks for June of 2026 were 2.77 times as many as for June of 2025. Much of the increase has to do with the removal of the $200 excise tax on silencers suppressors and on short barreled shotguns (sbs) and short barrled rifles (sbr).  The ATF has announced a proposed rule which will eliminate the need for fingerprints and photographs as part of the application process for “tax stamps” to obtain NFA items. There are several lawsuits challenging the validity of the NFA for items on which zero tax is required.

The uptick in firearms sales in June, at over 11% from last year, is significant. May and June continue the annual pattern of having sales lower than most of the other months. The only month in 2026 which shows lower firearm sales than the same month in 2025, (as shown by the adjusted NICS numbers) is January of 2026.

Analysis: The continued unsettled situation in and around the Persian gulf may be contributing to greater firearm sales. The stalemated war in Ukraine continues. Fuel prices have started to come down, leaving consumers with more disposable income. Firearm sales in July tend to be higher than firearm sales in June. Ammunition prices appear to be stable or slightly increasing. The mid-term elections are approaching, but political threats from the Left should be off-set by the Second Amendment victories at the Supreme Court. NFA sales will continue to break records. July firearm sales are predicted to be higher than June sales and higher than July sales were in 2025.

©2026 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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