NICS October 2026 Sales up 7.9%, Checks Down 8.1%

In the 27 years of the history of the National Instant Criminal background Check System (NICS) for October,  the adjusted firearms sales is the third highest on record. It surpasses the then record numbers of October, 2016 and is only surpassed by October of 2020 and 2021. Both 2016 and 2020 were enormously contentious presidential election years. 2021 was the first year of the failed Biden Presidency.

The October 2026 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,402,422 is an increase of 7.9 percent compared to the October 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,299,312. For comparison, the unadjusted October 2026 FBI NICS figure of 2,104,063 reflects an 8.1 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 2,289,774 in October 2025.

Firearm sales do better in times of uncertainty and political chaos. The stunning defeat of Republicans in Congress shows how much political chaos there was and is. Although not unprecedented historically, the next two years will likely have considerable political chaos as President Trump and the Congress battle over the fate of the nation.  It seems likely firearm sales will be above those of 2025 for both November and December of 2026. November and December have historically been strong monthly firearm sales months in the United States because of hunting seasons and Christmas. 

While the adjusted NICS numbers show almost an 8% increase over last October, the total NICS checks show slightly more than an 8% decline.  The number of firearm sales recorded in NICS as a percentage of the NICS checks done has been climbing since 2021. The percentage is highly variable, but trends toward 55% of the total checks.

Both Illinois and Kentucky have done monthly checks or rechecks of permit holders. Illinois has reduced its monthly permit and permit rechecks by about 3/4 since 2021. In 2026, Kentucky has reduced its monthly check and recheck numbers by more than half. The drop in Kentucky permit and permit rechecks more than explains the drop in total checks for October. 

Excluding Kentucky, the number of NICS checks went up nationally by 4%. 

The size of the Kentucky check and recheck batches is about 250-300 thousand. Before 2025, those batches were being done every month. Those batches dominated the national check and recheck numbers. From mid-2025 to present those big batches have only been done four times. Without the large batches of permit checks and rechecks from Illinois and Kentucky, the percentage of adjusted checks has been trending toward 55% of the total. 

At the time of this writing, the national numbers for NICS checks for National Firearms Act items have not been posted.  NFA items have been purchased at much higher numbers than have been seen in the past, because Congress reduced the 200 dollar tax to zero dollars tax. The Trump administration has stated they will not prosecute possession of silencers, short barreled rifles, and short barreled shotguns because a Fifth Circuit Court has ruled the restrictions to be unconstitutional because they were passed under the taxing authority. Now there is no tax. 

Analysis: Firearm sales are seeing a surge. The surge is likely to continue over the next two years. It seems likely the Democratic Party control of the Congress will result in the attempted passage of restrictions on firearms sales and ownership.  Several states have become controlled in both executive and legislative branches by the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party has become more radical. Expect more legislation to restrict firearm sales, ownership and carry in those states. Such legislation is likely to increase firearm sales. 

©2026 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

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