Paul Hudson: A step forward in forecasting cold winters?: Updated by Piers Corbyn
Article Tags: BBC, Headline Story, Paul Hudson, Piers Corbyn, Solar Climate Change, Solar Cycle 24, UK Winter Forecast 2012/13, Updated
Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) has been the ‘in’ topic in meteorological circles in the last couple of years, ever since the severe winter of 2009/2010 in which December was the coldest since the late 19th century.
SSW is linked to sudden large increases in temperature over a few days in the stratosphere over the Arctic.
This temperature change cause winds to reverse their normal direction.
For some time, forecasters have noted that a sudden weakening in high altitude winds in the stratosphere was often followed in winter by blocking surface weather systems.
These blocking weather systems tend to bring much colder conditions across Europe and the UK from the east, stopping milder air pushing in from the Atlantic.
Updated below by Piers Corbyn
Source: bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson
2012-10-19 01:54:06
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