Energy Lockdowns Have Begun. Most People Still Don't Understand What's Coming. The IEA

Energy Lockdowns and Economic Impacts
IEA Orders: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued emergency orders including working from home, reducing travel, and using public transit. “The IEA just issued emergency orders to the entire world: Work from home, Stop flying, Reduce highway speeds, Use public transit. This isn’t a suggestion. It’s an emergency playbook.”

Oil Prices: Oil prices have surged, with a 50% increase in three weeks, reaching $115/barrel. “Oil is at $115/barrel —up 50% in three weeks.”

Strait of Hormuz Closure: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly impacted global supplies. “The Strait of Hormuz carries: 20% of global oil, 33% of global fertilizer. It’s been closed since February 28.”

Fertilizer and Food Supply
Fertilizer Price Hikes: Fertilizer prices have risen by 40%, and exports are down by 50%. “Fertilizer prices are up 40%. Exports are down 50%.”

Agricultural Impact: Farmers are facing high costs for urea, which could lead to increased grocery prices. “Farmers in the US, India, and Africa are staring at $700/ton urea. You don’t feel it yet. You will in 3 months when grocery prices go vertical.”

Global Collapse Concerns
Systemic Risk: Some redditors believe that the current crisis marks the beginning of a global collapse. “I emphatically believe that 2025 was the last ‘Normal’ year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse – which has already begun.”

Supply Chain Vulnerability: The highly efficient but fragile global supply chain is a major concern. “We know the supply chain is inter-related, and efficiency is the enemy of resilience. We’ve got a highly efficient system. We do not have a resilient system.”

Historical and Geopolitical Context
Dollar Hegemony: The decline of the dollar’s dominance is seen as a significant factor. “Dollar hegemony is ending. That is a big deal.”

Geopolitical Factors: The conflict in the Middle East is part of a broader geopolitical struggle. “The war is more dependent on Israel’s geopolitical future in the region. As the petrodollar declines, America declines, and Israel loses its ally.”

Optimistic and Realistic Views
Resilience of the System: Some redditors believe that the world is more resilient than the collapse framework allows. “The world is a lot more resilient than the collapse framework allows for.”

Repair and Rebuild: The possibility of repairing and rebuilding infrastructure quickly is noted. “The majority of Gulf producers… have shut down operations and declared force majeure… When shipping resumes and the security situation changes, a lot of that capacity comes back online in weeks or months, not decades.”