S&P 500 Investors Game Board Upset by New Biden-Harris Trade Sanctions

S&P 500 (Index: SPX) investors were rattled in the trading week ending Friday, 19 July 2024. The index dropped two percent to close the week at 5,505.00.

That decline was triggered by the Biden-Harris administration’s announcement on Wednesday, 17 July 2024 that it was planning to expand its anti-free trade restrictions against China. The new sanctions would negatively affect U.S. advanced computer chip manufacturers as well as Japanese and Dutch chipmakers that do large volumes of business with China.

The announcement sent the stock prices of U.S. chipmakers plunging, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index experienced its worst day since 2022, going on to lose 4.3% by the end of the week. The third largest company in the S&P 500, AI chipmaker Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA), lost $244 billion (8.75%) of its total value from the previous week as it dropped to a market capitalization of $2.9 trillion. Coincidentally, the size of that loss is about $1 billion less than the entire market cap of Advanced Micro Devices (Nasdaq: AMD) after it shrank by 16.5% from its previous week’s market valuation.

The dividend futures-based model‘s alternative future chart shows what appears to be a new Lévy flight event, in which investors have shifted their investment time horizon from the current quarter of 2024-Q3 to the more distant future quarter of 2025-Q2, which may coincide with the timing of when the new export rules may take effect.

Trading during the week showed little sign of any impact from the Saturday, 13 July 2024 assassination attempt against former U.S. President Donald Trump. The change in stock prices for the S&P 500 on Monday, 15 July 2024 fell well below the threshold of a 2% change from the previous trading day’s close that would quality as interesting.

With corporate earnings season getting underway, it’s quite possible that the random onset of new information it provides may soon prompt investors to shift their focus back to the current quarter. Or not. It depends on what new information comes out in the week’s ahead.

Speaking of which, here are the week’s market moving headlines.

Monday, 15 July 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices ease on demand concerns in China
• Yield Curve: US30Y jumps above the US2Y for the first time since late January

Fed minions say U.S. inflation is heading lower to their 2% target:

• Fed’s Powell: Latest data ‘add somewhat to confidence’ inflation is returning to 2%

Bigger trouble, stimulus, bailouts developing in China:

• China’s economy falters, raises pressure for more stimulus

• China’s GDP Growth Unexpectedly Tumbles As New Home Prices Plunge Most In 9 Years
• China new home prices fall at fastest pace in 9 years, more support needed
• China’s Q2 GDP grows 4.7% y/y, below forecast

Chinese Regulators Intensify Efforts To Tighten Control Over Financial Markets

Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end higher on first trading day since assassination attempt on Trump

• Trump Media skyrockets 70% as markets reopen following assassination attempt
• Game-Changing CPI Report May Drive Big Rotation Towards Value And SmallCap

Tuesday, 16 July 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices decline over 1% on Chinese demand jitters

IMF says Fed minions shouldn’t rush to cut U.S. short term interest rates:

• No rush for US Fed to cut rates, IMF’s chief economist says

Bigger stimulus, bailouts developing in China:

• China tries to hit more birds with one stone in property rescue push

BOJ, JapanGov minions secretly involved in propping up Japan’s currency, letting failing businesses finally go under:

• Japan keeps up yen warnings; 6 trillion yen, 2-day intervention suspected
• Japan finds a ‘stealth’ cure for zombie businesses: Let them fail

Possible growth signs developing in Eurozone:

• Euro zone households seek loans again after two years – ECB

Dow jumps more than 700 points on UnitedHealth boost; rotation into small-caps continue

• Dow, small caps rally as rate-cuts bets hold firm
• UnitedHealth hits seven-month high after Q2 beat

Wednesday, 17 July 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices steady as declining US inventories offset slowing China demand
• US Floats Tougher Trade Curbs in Chip Crackdown on China
• US single-family housing starts hit eight-month low; green shoots in manufacturing

Fed minions “optimistic” inflation will drop to their 2% target, thinking about cutting rates:

• Fed’s Kugler cautiously optimistic inflation headed to 2% target
• Top Fed officials say they are ‘closer’ to cutting interest rates

• Fed’s Williams suggests rate cut could be warranted in coming months, WSJ reports
• Fed’s Waller says timing of interest rate cut ‘drawing closer’

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s June jobless rate for 16-24 year olds at 13.2%, stats bureau says

Global chip sell-off slams Nasdaq, which notches worst day since 2022; Dow tops 41K

• Chip stocks shed over $500 billion in value on China trade fears
• Gold posts second-highest close as U.S. rate cut hopes rise, Treasury yields fall

Thursday, 18 July 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices rise on bigger-than-expected drop in US crude stocks
• Key U.S. mortgage rate drops to lowest since March, Freddie Mac says

Fed minions say they’re not okay yet with inflation, pitch new way for banks to tap into bailout money:

• Fed’s Daly says ‘not there yet’ on price stability
• Fed’s Logan hails progress in prepping banks for discount window

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s stubborn savers ignore inducements to spend as growth slows
• China reaffirms lofty policy goals, offers no implementation details

BOJ minions seeking ways to keep stimulus alive:

• BOJ wants to maintain accommodative monetary environment, Jiji reports

ECB minions choose to sit on hands, will think about cutting rates later:

• ECB keeps rates unchanged, offers no guidance on next move

• ECB keeps rates on hold, leaves options open for Sept
• ECB hawks open to September rate cut if data supports it, sources say

Nasdaq, S&P slip, Dow sheds 500 points as tech rotation intensifies; Netflix in focus

• Wall Street ends sharply lower as anxiety rises, earnings heat up

Friday, 19 July 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Global tech outage disrupts industries, highlights online risks

• What is CrowdStrike, the cybersecurity firm behind a global tech outage?
• Without backup plans, global IT outages will happen again

US regional banks build stronger safety nets as CRE pain lingers

• US regional banks’ Q2 profits squeezed by deposit costs, tepid loan demand

Oil settles at one-month low on Gaza ceasefire hopes

Fed minions looking forward to getting inconclusive data:

• Fed faces wave of data before deciding on end-of-summer rate cut

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• Chinese officials expect bumpy ride for economy after policy meeting
• China to boost support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins

BOJ minions to hold rates steady despite inflation pressure:

• BOJ to forego July rate hike, over three-quarters of economists say: Reuters poll
• Japan’s capital seen facing increased inflation pressure: Reuters poll

ECB minions thinking about cutting Eurozone interest rates after passing on cuts this month:

• ECB policymakers back more rate cuts as inflation heads back to goal

Wall Street posts worst week in three months; focus turns to upcoming earnings deluge

• S&P 500 falls nearly 2% for worst week since mid-April as traders shun big tech
• Wall Street falters, CrowdStrike slumps on global tech outage

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool forecast is mostly unchanged this week. It continues to anticipate the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 18 September (2024-Q3), at which time, the Fed is expected to start a series of 0.25% rate cuts that will occur at 6-to-12-week intervals at least into mid-2025.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool‘s forecast of the annualized real GDP growth rate during 2024-Q2 continued rising to +2.7% from the +2.0% growth projected a week earlier. When the BEA’s official first estimate of GDP in 2024-Q2 is released near the near of July 2024, the GDPNow tool will shift to start forecasting 2024-Q3′s real GDP growth rate.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a worried Wall Street bull and a bear moving pieces around a game board”.