When facts die

When a TV reporter stuck a mic in the face of a MAGA maiden he asked her about jobs.

“They’re all gone,” she said. “The illegals took them, which is why our economy’s destroyed and there are more jobless people than ever before in our history.”

For the record, American unemployment has been at or below 4% for almost three years. That’s the best record in half a century. Inflation has gone from over 9% to 3%. No recession and positive GDP growth. Stock markets have hit record after record. The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq have never been this rich. Corporate profits swelled to a record at the end of 2023 and are 6.5% above year-ago levels. Technology has surged. For an entire year, wage gains have exceeded inflation.

“Biden’s ruined it all,” she continued. “We’re in socialism and on our way to communism.”

This is not to support Biden (or whomever is in charge on Monday) or to dis Trump. It’s all about what people believe, and why. Thanks to politicians without ethics and social media platforms without guardrails, tens or hundreds of millions of people have no factual basis for what they “know.” They just know it.

We’re not much different. Drop into Reddit some time and read the comments about life in Canada. It’s a swamp of despair, nihilism, unmet expectations and moaning. Mostly because houses cost too much. That leads directly to trashing immigrants, ageist attacks on Boomers, anti-corporatism and especially revulsion at government. Now Con leader Pierre Poilievre is polling miles ahead of the ruling Liberals on sound economic management – when he’s actually managed nothing.

The latest Nanos poll puts PP eleven points about Justin Trudeau when it comes to the economy. That gap has ballooned in the past year, even though the Conservatives have released no platform or agenda. Poilievre has echoed Trump in saying he’ll cut government, lower taxes, reduce inflation and build more houses.

How would a change in leaders change life?

Of course, reducing the size of government means cutting program spending. Currently $99 billion (of the $450 billion fed budget) is transferred to provinces. Another $80 billion goes for pensions to wrinklies. Health transfers cost about $55 billion. Interest on the national, debt is close to $60 billion and the military takes $26.5 billion (way below our NATO promise). In all, 62% of the cash Ottawa spends goes to provinces or families. The rest finances everything else, including the military, hefty sums to Indigenous peoples and running the government. Ottawa is unable to raise enough in taxes to cover all this, which means we’ve been borrowing about $40 billion a year and adding that to the debt – which now stands at $1.23 trillion.

It’s a mess. But a lot better than the US. Americans carry $34.8 trillion in debt. Our deficit is 1.3% of the economy. Theirs is 6%.

In short, a lot of voters cast negative ballots. They throw government out rather than support new ones. The best path to electoral success is to lie, misinterpret, exaggerate, fib, misstate, and fabricate. In other words, play to public fears, prejudices and perceptions. Trump’s a master at that. Look what he has to say about the migrants..

But do pissed-off voters know what they are heading for?

Nope, of course not. Many think that changing government will bring consumer prices down, increase incomes and make real estate affordable. In Canada will they accept deep cuts in OAS and child support payments, health care or defence to achieve some of that? And when tens of billions have been spent trying to get more homes built, what will change? Should we have a serious recession to knock real estate values down? But won’t that bring a painful jump in unemployment, making it harder for people to buy? And in recessions government revenues crash while overhead goes up. Yikes.

Meanwhile the guys in power are in a pickle. There are no easy answers, even as opposition politicians convince voters that they exist. Trump can’t slap on trade tariffs (which US consumers pay, not other countries) without igniting more inflation. Poilievre can’t cut middle-class taxes without swelling the deficit or chopping spending. And no president or prime minister has the power to make groceries or gasoline or bungalows cost less.

This brings us to Mark Carney.

Would changing the finance minister work?

The former Bank of Canada boss and head of the Bank of England is a global financial figure. He worked at Goldman Sachs, the Department of Finance in Ottawa, moved on to be a central banker and now heads up Brookfield Asset Management as well as being chairman of Bloomberg.

Will he soon be our new Minister of Finance?

We’re headed in that direction. Freeland has been, by all counts, a disaster. Her budgets have been PR flops, especially the last ‘generational fairness’ version which irritated all gens (no cheaper houses and a big capital gains tax jump). She comes across as condescending, hectoring and irritating. No empathy. A head-bobbing puppet when standing beside her boss. And bad polls.

Carney could be brought into Cabinet as an appointment, rather than elected. There is precedent. It would be quick. World markets would take note. The guy has creds. And Trudeau needs a bold move as he stares into the electoral abyss.

Would it change anything?

Nah. But off with her head.

About the picture: “Here’s a picture of our three-year-old Great Pyrenees,” writes Sean. “Still a puppy at heart, our beloved “T” enjoys the attention of all humans and dogs alike. Possibly, the bubble halo around her is akin to the housing market that surrounds us in Victoria, BC; unfortunately, all the homes in our area (Cordova Bay) are commanding high prices and selling within weeks of list. Thank you for all that you do.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.