War of the Spiderwebs

For all the talk of Israel struggling to conquer Gaza and eliminating Hamas after ten months of war, the fact is it has been on the front foot from the beginning, initiating the action at every turn. 

It is on the offensive, changing the momentum of the war, and it’s been rewarded for its boldness. It is winning. Wars like this one, ethnic and religious in nature, are measured by the body count. And Israel has piled up more bodies.

The Palestinians and Muslims are always on the defensive, responding feebly to every Israeli provocation and massacre. 

What have Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and the Islamic Republic managed to do since October? Nothing. They are not fighting from a position of righteousness or strength. Their rockets and missiles are a farce.

This isn’t America against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Americans had no desire to stay in that foreign land. The American war machine had no interest in rebuilding Afghanistan and expending blood and treasure endlessly to defeat a group that it originally backed in the 90s. It was a cynical enterprise from the start. It should have ended in October 2001.

Not so with Israel. Israel’s war is existential and ancient. It will not forfeit its gains, or abandon its land to the Muslims. It will risk total annihilation before submitting to its enemies.

Still, it is not a giant. As Nasrallah has said in the past, it is weaker than a spiderweb. But so are Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic. This is not a war between titans, as WWII was, or even WWI. 

America is also not a giant on this battlefield. It cannot dictate victory or defeat in this war. It is a passenger in this drama. As for the rest of the Middle East, they are bystanders as well. 

The Gulf Arabs, the Egyptians, the Turks and the Pakistanis are not historical actors in this play. They are side characters at best. They are led by village guards, not great men. Including them in any coalition with the thought of tilting the balance of the war is ridiculous. Collectively they couldn’t handle small groups like ISIS or the Houthis. 

Cults and militias are the lead actors in this war, not nations, great armies, or grand coalitions. And, ultimately, any victory will be a hollow one, because the cycle of revenge will continue.