Rising CO2 Points to Higher China Emissions

The pace of carbon dioxide accumulates in the Earth’s atmosphere increased again in August 2024.

The increase comes as China, the world’s largest source of carbon dioxide emissions by a widening margin, has stated its emissions have not peaked and will continue to increase.

The increase in the rate at which CO₂ is being added to the Earth’s air also comes as the 2023-24 El Niño event has dissipated. These weather events contribute to dry weather conditions that when combined with wildfires, often increase the amount of carbon dioxide that enters the atmosphere. It’s no accident two of the worst years for CO₂ accumulation were 1997 and 2015, which saw major wildfires in Indonesia coincide with very strong El Niño events. Fortunately, 2024 hasn’t seen a similar level of natural wildfire disasters.

With 2023-24′s El Niño in the rear view mirror, what’s happening with CO₂ emissions traces directly back to human activities. The current rise of atmospheric CO₂ began after December 2022 when China, the world’s largest source of human-produced carbon dioxide emissions, lifted its zero-COVID restrictions, stimulating its economy. The following chart shows the results.

Since the concentration of carbon dioxide is measured at the remote Mauna Loa Observatory, it represents a lagging indicator of human activities because it takes several weeks for CO₂ emissions to diffuse into the Earth’s air. Since China is such a large source of emissions, they correspond with China’s economic output. Chinese factories cranked up their production of goods for export in recent months as part of a strategy to beat new tariffs being imposed on many of these goods by the United States, the European Union, and other nations.

That strategy increases CO₂ emissions now, but also sets the stage for declines after the new tariffs go into effect. It’s a bit like a sugar rush, which spark a frenzy of activity only followed by a crash. In the case of CO₂ emissions, declines in the rate at which carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere are associated with recessions and other negative economic events when not countered with massive stimulus efforts.

References

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 Data. [Online Data]. Updated 5 August 2024. Accessed 5 August 2024.

Image credit: Thermal Power Plant photo on pxhere. Creative Commons CC0 Public Domain.