#Economy & #Stocks Review Growing Cracks in the Facade
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| E&S Review |
Much of today’s economic data, time series officially collected and produced, are highly unreliable. Statisticians employ well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic to adjust economic outcomes as far back as the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers use these techniques for political gain.
Data massaged by statistical techniques (tricks) are revised when nobody is looking, or Administrations or public policies change.
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Growing Cracks in the Facade
Growing cracks in the economic facade, a realistic discussion about risk, reward, and false assumptions, are easily dismissed by the majority as crazy talk. A persistent stock market rally supports the majority’s bullish perspective. This only reinforces data driven analysis of the invisible hand as crazy talk. Acknowledgement of the cracks is necessary for long-term survival. It’s prudent to understand the risks that the majority will realize later under a backdrop of fear, illiquidity, and panic selling. This backdrop typically produces unfavorable price discovery for anyone not prepared.
Our computer tracks the invisible hand to score today’s backdrop on a scale of 0% to 100% in terms of correction/crash reading (instability) and stability in broad stock market (risk) timing model. The percentages are updated daily with the PREV Matrix, and we often discuss the output in the Economic & Stocks Report. We have several recent updates discussing the growing cracks in the economic facade. The E&S Report will be deemed, must-watch from 2024 to 2025 for anyone looking to separate from the majority.
A short- to intermediate-term components of the timing model are the correlation of price, risk, and the term structure of the VIX. These components have been sending up serious warning flags that the majority won’t acknowledge until liquidity dries up. Today’s review will discuss two. Please watch the E&S Report videos for further discussion.
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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.
Source: http://www.edegrootinsights.com/2024/10/economy-stocks-review-growing-cracks-in.html
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