Why?

As usual when the orange guy is referenced, this blog suffers an epidemic of deletes. Trump supporters in Canada appear to be as cultish and unwavering as their southern brethren. Any questioning of his avowed policies brings a blanket accusation of “Trump Derangement Syndrome”. It’s akin to saying Kamala Harris is “mentally disabled” when you just don’t like her.

This suggests two things.

First, Trump has made it okay for his adherents to post racist, anti-immigrant, misogynist, abusive and vulgar things on my blog. After all, he says them all the time. Jesus likes and supports him. So it must be okay. (But it’s not. Deleted.)

Second, this is about right v left. Lots of people support a flawed, criminally-convicted felon, an obvious liar who tried to subvert the transfer of power when he was defeated and went on to be found guilty of sex abuse and fraud because they hate woke. They call Harris a ‘DEI hire’ because diversity, equity and inclusion is right up there with abortion, transgender people and dog-eating migrants on the list of things eroding and threatening society.

Like Putin in his Russia, Trump in his America has been embraced by the most conservative religious Christian believers who see this imperfect person as their best bastion against leftist progressivity. The entire message of MAGA is to retreat to a time when the US was a different land with more white, less brown, less complexity, more wealth and women who knew their place.

Well, all that’s fine. Believe and support what you wish. The arguments against Trump on this blog have always come from the same place – a desire to have the best outcome for the people of Canada. Overwhelmingly, the consensus is that he will be bad for us.

If you disbelieve me, here are some additional voices.

Randall Bartlett, Desjardins Canadian Economics

“We looked at how trade-exposed various commodities are that are exported from Canada, so we looked at 96 goods sectors, how trade exposed they are to the U.S., and then ultimately what the impact of those tariffs could be. There are direct impacts of the 10% or up to 20% Trump tariff applied to imports from Canada. Beyond that, there’s also implications for things like the dramatic slowing in migration to the U.S., which would weaken the U.S. economy, particularly in sectors like construction.

“There are some offsetting impacts to those negative shocks but generally on net, a very meaningful drag on the Canadian economy.”

Tom Feltman, TD Economics

“The tax cuts proposed by Trump would be expansionary in nature. However, funding those cuts by universally increasing tariffs on all of America’s trading partners threatens to disrupt trade flows and destabilize global supply chains – increasing the odds of a global recession and disruptions to American corporations and consumers.

“Depending on the severity of the tariffs and retaliation imposed by trading partners, the economic damage caused from the protectionist measures alongside the erosion in real household income from more expensive consumable goods is likely to offset or perhaps even outweigh the lift to growth stemming from the tax breaks. Moreover, the revenues generated from the tariffs are likely to fade over time as import flows decline, which means the deficit is likely to widen by even more than what’s currently projected by the CBO.

“A more serious fiscal adjustment that includes some combination of higher taxes, cuts to major entitlement programs and/or deep cuts to discretionary spending will eventually be required to put the U.S. on more sustainable fiscal path. This is unlikely to happen over the near-term. But at some point, over the coming decade, the music will stop, and whoever is in power will be forced to make some hard decisions.”

 Jean-François Perrault, Scotiabank Economics

“Given their unilateral nature, former President Trump’s proposed 10% across-the-board increase in tariffs, with a special 60% carve-out for China, would effectively be the launch of a trade war, with damaging impacts on the United  States and the rest of the world.

“Assuming other countries respond to higher U.S. tariffs with equivalent tariffs of their own, we would expect substantial negative impacts on U.S. economic activity, including a peak decline of over 2.2% in GDP relative to current forecasts, a peak inflation impact of 1.5% relative to the current view, and a 200 bp rise in policy rates relative to the current expected path for U.S. rates.

“Given Canada’s greater reliance on trade, the imposition of tariffs on all exports to the United States would lead to even greater economic harm north of the border, with a forecast peak decline of over 3.6% in the level of economic activity relative to current forecasts, inflation that is 1.7% higher than currently expected, and policy rates that are 190 bp above the current expected path for the Bank of Canada.”

Their conclusion is clear. Trump will hurt Canada.

Why would you fete him?

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To be in touch, or send a picture of your Messiah, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2024/10/10/why-5/