2024 Predictions Compo: RESULT

Tradition has it that around now we dust off the crystal balls and gaze into the year ahead.  So: while you’re up in the loft looking for your predicting paraphernalia for 2025, let’s look at how 2024 worked out against everyone’s forecasting.

The questions from last year: 

1. UK GE: date (month); 
2. … and number of Labour MPs after the GE 
3. US Presidency: who wins? 
4. Size of V. Putin’s share of the Russian vote (as announced) 
5. By how much, and in what direction, will the FTSE100 change between midnight UK GE polling day and the end of 2024? 
6. Length of Sam B-F’s gaol term upon sentencing (note: zero is a number). Extra point for size of the fine in USD 
7. Where will Man Utd rank in the Prem at the end of the ’23-4 season, and who will be manager?

Answers:  

1. 4 July.  We all plumped for the autumn … save for Mr Cowshed who said “early July”!  Off to a flying start.
2. 411.  What a fiasco.  Closest here was Caesar H, at 400.
3. Mostly Trumps here: two Bidens and, errrr, a “Haley”
4. 88.48%.  Another win for Cowshed, with 92%: see footnote on a curiosity.
5. As of 10am, it’s plus 2%. Barring some amazing action this afternoon,  SubOptimal easily wins this one with +2.2%
6. 25 years / “repay $11bn”.  Not sure that’s strictly a fine.  Anyhow, several people went with either 20 or 30 years; nobody got close on the $$$.  An entertaining 99 years sentence from the retributive Caesar (thumbs down from him, then); and a lenient 3 from Lilith.
7. 8th / ten Hag.  The best all-round performance on this one: the majority saw tH surviving – well, at least that long – and clustered tightly around 8th.  An entertaining suggestion of Wayne Rooney from BQ.

Good sport!  But there has to be a winner, and the judges say … Anomalous Cowshed!  With hon mensh to SubOptimal (who [s]he? – please do come again) and Caesar H.  

Up soon: 2025. 

ND

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Note on Putin’s vote:  the initial announcement was 87.3%, on which I had been tipped off a few days earlier & duly reported here.  However, subsequently it seems to have been revised upwards (a few late votes, perhaps – well, it’s always hard to vote with a severely twisted arm.  And 87% was pretty demeaning).  A pity, because then I’d have won in this category – my prediction was 83%.  But there’s no accounting for rigged votes.