Assessment

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   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

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It’s that time of year when our inboxes get filled up with economic and market outlook reports for the coming year. We’ll be contributing to this body of research shortly and plan to publish our market outlook over the next few weeks.

We’ve been analyzing and publishing research on the financial markets for well over a decade and over this period have developed a very detailed and systematic approach. This includes analyzing the Canadian/US/global economy, the outlook for interest rates and monetary policy, fundamental factors including projecting earnings and P/E ratios, market cycles, investor sentiment and the technical charts. In addition, we read hundreds of pages of research to help us round out our thinking. It’s a big undertaking but one that we relish and that our clients appreciate.

As part of that process, we always go back and review our previous years market predictions and recommendations. We want to see what we got right and wrong, and more importantly, review our calls that didn’t pan out. By studying your mistakes (and we’re going to make them) you learn more about the markets, what works, what doesn’t, so that you improve your batting average in the future.

So, in today’s blog we’re going to review our key market predictions and recommendations from our 2024 outlook to see how we did. Spoiler alert: we did pretty well!

Below is a table summarizing our key market calls from last year’s blog. We then include a write up commentary on the outcome and whether it was a ‘hit’ or ‘miss’. As you can see lots of ‘hits’ for last year’s predictions, which we’re (and our clients) are very pleased with.

Yes, the markets were up big this year, which we and a lot of others called for. But as you can see, we had a number of specific predictions that came to fruition.

For example, we predicted the US/global economy would slow (it did) but experience a soft landing rather than a deeper recession. Our concerns of a bigger slowdown for the Canadian economy also played out. Our calls for slower inflation and numerous interest rate cuts were on cue. We correctly predicted big market gains driven by a combination of P/E expansion and rising corporate profits. And, most importantly, our prediction that stocks, bonds and preferred shares would all rise and that balanced portfolios would have a good year was spot on for 2024.

In our coming blogs we’ll provide our 2025 outlook and hopefully the markets and our predictions will yield more success for our cherished clients in 2025, as they did this year.

Until then, have a wonderful and prosperous holidays and new year!

Turner Investments Key Predictions for 2023

Click to enlarge. Source: Turner Investments. As of December 12, 2024

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Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2024/12/14/assessment/