"50 new gas-fired power plants for Germany" - and UK?

“German opposition leader vows to build 50 gas-fired power plants if elected“, the story goes.  This is Merz, leader of the CDU and potentially Germany’s next Chancellor (although see the 2025 Predictions compo).  50 is hyperbolic[1], but the point remains: Germany is hugely lacking in natural energy resources and, having bizarrely closed all its nukes on Merkel’s whim, can’t remotely rely on its large but actually not very impressive fleet of solar and wind power.  (Solar?  This is N.Europe.  Wind?  It has only a very small coastline, and that’s in the wrong place.  Coal & lignite?   In abundance – but not “green”, of course.)

So where would the gas come from?  Well, “imports”: but lack of detail on this is just one element of the hyperbole, and his statement isn’t any kind of practical plan.  But the point remains: the more wind & solar in a power fleet, the more strategic, long-term[2] backup power is required.  Right now, batteries aren’t even remotely candidates for this, and won’t be within a realistic planning period.   Pumped-storage hydro is great but in limited supply.  Imports of electricity are what Germany relies on right now but the Scandinavians are getting pretty testy about this – it plays havoc with their own markets – and may well pull the plug. 

Which brings us to our own shores.  Large-scale build-up of solar and wind – check.  Growing electricity demand (after more than a decade of decline) – check.  Declining nuclear capacity[3] – check.  Reliance on imports which might not be a practical proposition indefinitely – check.  So: continued, nay, growing need for gas-fired backup – check.  Even Little Ed Miliband realised this before the election, and now plans to retain the full 30-35 MW of our existing fleet[4] in his feeble “100% decarbonised by 2030, oops, make that 95%, it’s what I always meant, it’s the same thing” non-plan.

Here’s the thing: these things are easy for a politician to say but that’s not enough.  Capital plant can’t equally easily be made to stand around doing nothing all year, but spring into life with ultra-high reliability on the odd, unpredictable occasion it’s needed to be in action for a week or so.  That’s not how the world works.

To be fair, HMG has gone one step further and has come up with a new subsidy for which backup gas-fired plants would qualify – but that’s only the financial aspect.  The practical and physical aspects are legion, not least because if Mili’s plans for decarbonising home heating progress[5] the overall scale of gas infrastructure[6] will be diminishing materially, and it would be comprehensive extant infrastructure paid for by someone else (as it is at present) that a rarely-used gas-based backup system would parasitically depend upon.

Yet another facet of the infeasibility of Miliband’s plan.  He gave a very upbeat (and in fact, rather good – in political terms) performance in front of the Select Committee last week, and one can easily see how Labour MPs who don’t understand the subject matter (evidently including Starmer and Reeves) would be inclined to view him very favourably and trust him implicitly.  But it’s all destined to hit the rocks of hard reality at some point.  When?  I’m not sure.  Meantime, a heap of subsidy-contracts are gonna get taken by some players – and paid for by us.

ND

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[1] … but music to the ears of hard-pressed Siemens!

[2] In this context, ‘long-term’ means weeks.  Batteries are only good for hours – which is very useful for some purposes, but not for Dunkelflaute

[3] Hinkley Point C start-up is a distant prospect, and the existing fleet is in decline, even if its life is prolonged to the max and the ONR throws safety considerations to the winds

[4] Numbers vary from document to document

[5] His targets won’t be met, of course, but the gradual replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps is inevitable, even if at infinitesimal pace.  Ditto EVs

[6] By ‘infrastructure’ I mean not only the pipelines, storage facilities and LNG import terminals, but also the commercial and ‘soft’ aspects associated with there being a vast amount of gas sloshing around the UK all the time & particularly in winter:  lots of long-term supply contracts, gas traders, commercial, engineering & tech expertise, market liquidity etc etc – in other words, a thriving, extant gas industry of critical mass.