Incoming!

Carney crushes Chrystia. Tariffs are 100% coming. And almost 15% of you would rather be Yanks.

The results of our GreaterFool poll are in. Between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning 3,756 readers responded. Full results are below. The survey is utterly unscientific, since we don’t know the city you live in, your age, income, occupation, marital status, canine preference or pronouns.

But 3,756 is a big sample. It’s worth something. Thanks to Webmaster William Stratas for harvesting enough parts from a 1971 Chevy Nova to get the poll tool built. We’ll park it out back now, awaiting the next crisis.

By the way, this vox populi stuff comes on an important day. Washington this morning released the latest US inflation stats, with real implications for us little beavs. The cost of living is on the march higher in America, and now but a whisker below the 3% mark. Not so good.

This comes on the heels of boffo jobs numbers in the US (and here). The unemployment rate Joe Biden leaves you-know-who is down at the 4% mark, and close to the best in half a century. The American GDP is boiling, corporate profits are forecast to grow by double-digits and wages are steadily rising. Now Trump is ready to sprinkle a huge amount of stimulus on the economy, and the Fed understands clearly where that’s taking things.

So, no rate cut in the US this month. Maybe not this year. And – perhaps – the same here, depending on what Prime Minister Carney decides. (That sounds weird, no?)

If American rates stay steady (after three reductions in 2024) then our guys are stuck. If the Bank of Canada were to cut more, the loonie would swoon, making imports cost a bundle extra, fuelling inflation. Combine that with the recession-inducing Trump tariffs plus rising unemoloyment and our economy turns into poutine. If Ottawa goes Rambo and retaliates against US imports, prices rise even further. Then the CB must raise rates. Mortgages will cost 6% again. Phil Soper’s head will explode.

The concern is that Trump will (a) impose those tariffs and increase US consumer prices almost immediately, (b) hack corporate taxes dramatically, goosing financial markets, (c) fulfill promises to eliminate personal taxes on tips, overtime and retirement incomes, increasing consumer spending and (d) begin mass deportations and throttle immigration, reducing the labour pool and causing wage pressure. All of it stokes inflation. Many economists think US rates will be higher in a year, not lower. And that sure impacts us.

So how do we deal with this?

Most of you agree the trade war is coming, that it’s serious, and we should fight. But opinion is divided on whether or not to go all nuke and cut off energy exports to an America which is punishing our imports. At this point we also don’t exactly know who the general will be leading the patriotic moose, fighter Canada Geese and amphibious beaver squads into action.

Poilievre’s position isn’t too clear. Neither is Carney’s and in our poll he narrowly beat out Mr. NOTA (None of the Above) and left Ms. Freeland in the dust, hiking the odds he will be the PM on March 10th.

Meantime, just five more sleeps until Tariff Man rises. Prepare your goose.

(POLL RESULTS – Click image to enlarge)