Silent spring

Cody’s started to shed. There was a flock of robins cruising the street yesterday. The sap has started. So, rutting season is at hand.

If times were normal, this spring market might be an epic one for real estate. Almost the perfect FOMO storm.

• Rates have plopped enough to push five-year money into the 3% range.
• All newbie buyers are allowed a 30-year amortization, meaning they can enjoy more debt for the same payment. Joy.
• A million people have opened one of those crazy FHSA accounts letting them work towards a tax-deductible down payment.
• The insurance limit has been zoomed high by CMHC, meaning cheaper-rate mortgages are available on homes worth up to $1.5 million.
• This also crashes down payments. The money required to buy a seven-figure home has dropped by 60%.
• The last two spring markets were sodden disasters. Buyers balked. Now we have a heap of pent-up demand.
• And lousy sales have dropped prices. Not a lot, but less is less. We’re sitting about 15% below the 2021 peak.
• Meanwhile there’s a festering pile of unsold new-home inventory, especially condos. In the GTA alone, over 21,000 units are available, giving buyers choice and bargaining power.

It would be enough to stir the loins of every lender, agent and broker – if 2025 hadn’t turned out differently. But here we are. The market is soggy again, and may in fact be on the cusp of an historic decline.

You know why.

The steel/aluminium thing Trump signed into effect yesterday shattered the brief feeling that the American president was just jerking our chain two weeks ago. He’s not. He hates us, or perhaps wants to loot us, or wants Canadian taxpayers to subsidize US ones, or doesn’t understand economics or doesn’t care. The motives are unclear. The consequences are not.

Tariffs will bring recession, job loss, more discerning lenders and reduced buyer confidence. Retaliatory duties and a low dollar will bring inflation and upward pressure on interest rates. Playing in the background are the weasel words of the most powerful person on the planet saying Canada “is not a viable country”. Meanwhile the maple MAGAs pile on to ensure as many people as possible think we live in a shithole nation. Oh, and did you see this in Alberta…?

In case you missed it worrying about Trump damaging your country’s economy and your family’s financial future, a collection of “Alberta patriots” has been lobbying for a traitorous secession and union with the fifty existing US states. The spokesguy, retired cop Peter Downing, says the media campaign will be expanded to Washington, then the hood around Mar-a-Lago – just to make the orange guy think we wish to be rescued. Yeah, like in Ukraine, where the provocateurs begged Putin to come and bomb their neighbours.

“The former RCMP officer who moved to Alberta in 2005, believes the province’s values align more closely with American states like Texas and North Dakota, particularly regarding government intervention and resource development,” says the Western Standard, which accepts advertising from the dump-Canada cohort.

So, is this the time to write an offer and swallow a massive mortgage?

Custy mortgage broker Ron Butler sees it clearly from his perch as a stressed lender. “With mortgage rates at their lowest point in 22 months, we are NOT seeing a huge pop in real estate activity and prices. Logically, increased economic worries will tamp down sales activity in spite of lower rates. If we end up with these big tariffs in March things get worse.”

Well, they’re coming. As stated, Tariff Man never did care about druggies or a trickle of migrants from Canada – those were excuses needed to circumvent our binding trade deal and assume power a president was never intended to have. As stated, America is moving rapidly to unwind democratic institutions, controls and norms. Now Trump is defying the last line of defence, the judiciary. After that it’s a straight run. Hee’s already talking about not leaving when his term is over in 2028.

Imagine if you woke up one morning living next to a quasi-dictatorship run by a 80-something guy who sells bibles plus meme crypto coins, supported by the world’s richest oligarch, unelected, who named his son X Æ A-Xii. And they had the most guns and nukes on the planet. Yikes.

It’s close.

By the way, can you knit stuff out of dog hair? Asking for a friend.

About the picture: “I have been reading your blog for many years and really love the dog and cat pics and of course your great free advice,” writes Keith.  “Please consider this pic of Foxy who we lost back in 2020.  She loved to hike and this picture was taken from the summit of Mt Benson near Nanaimo, BC (Sail Away knows the spot!).  She was an amazing dog and we enjoyed many years with her.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your pooch, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/02/11/silent-spring-3/