Glimmers

Some buildings have, literally, dozens of them. Condos. Largely identical, all for sale.

In one Toronto tower a desperate owner ended up abandoning the $1 million asking price and took an offer for more than a hundred grand less. Now every other lister had a fresh comp. In an environment like that, there’s no escaping comparables. So just as new price ceilings were set weekly three years ago, now new floors are established with an equal intensity.

As the industrialized world’s leaders meet today in Alberta to deal with conflict, trade wars and real ones, there is little clarity on whether people selling real estate for less are unwise, or if the ones buying are the greater fools. Is there reason to believe we’ve hit Peak Trump and the recession threat is fading, bringing FOMO? Or will surging oil combine with MAGA tariffs to pooch the economy and send home values cascading lower?

Dunno. Nor do you. Or anyone. But this headline carried by Bloomberg today was sunny.

The latest news from CREA does indeed show a growth in sales (nationally) last month, compared to April. But year/year the story is still one of decline, with deals down more than 4% – and last year sucked. The cartel’s economist says, “maybe the expected turnaround in housing activity this year was just delayed for a few months by the initial tariff chaos and uncertainty.”

Then again, perhaps this is a bull trap. If Trump stomps out of this G7 the way he did in Quebec seven years ago, the rest of the year could see a tumble in buyer confidence and house prices. But if the president turns out to be TACO, just the opposite. It’s a coin toss.

Meanwhile listings continue to pile up. In May there were 201,880 properties for sale across Canada. This morning there are 342,343 listed on realtor.ca. The increase last month was 13% over 2024 and 3% above April. Demand is not even coming close to supply – and yet we have governments at all levels that continue to pump out as many new units as possible.

By the way, here is how the supply of condos in the GTA stacks up against previous years. We are on uncharted ground.

Meanwhile, we should expect to be bombarded with soothing reports about ‘recovering’ real estate markets. The assumption of governments, economists and (of course) realtors, lenders, homeowners and builders is that a ‘robust, healthy’ market is one in which sales and prices trend higher.

Here’s the latest analysis, for example, from RBC: “The weight of the trade war on Canada’s housing markets could be lifting as reports from local real estate boards indicate home resale activity picked up in May in some of the markets that had pulled back.

“The de-escalation of tariffs has taken centre stage since May, alleviating some of the worst fears about the potential economic fallout even though recent doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs increases risks in some communities. We expect to get a clearer view in the coming months.

“Still, markets in southern Ontario and parts of British Columbia—the country’s least affordable areas—remain especially soft. Activity in many of them is close to cyclical lows and will take time to rebound to more robust levels.”

See what we mean? ‘More robust’ is good and ‘especially soft’ is bad. Gone from view is the institutional hope by banks or elected people that prices will actually fall to levels in keeping with historic trends. Recall that the new housing minister, Poor Gregor Robertson, fell into this trap during his first day on the job.

When asked by reporters if he thinks home prices need to go down, he told reporters: “No, I think that we need to deliver more supply, make sure the market is stable.”

Robertson said his work as housing minister will focus on building up supply of affordable housing in Canada.

Sigh. It’s hopeless. The kiddos in Surrey and Mississauga will have to move to New Brunswick, or maybe Estevan where, for three hundred grand, they can get a decent house.

Maybe a decent life, too.

About the picture: “Name unknown, this fellow is one of a litter of 14 Great Pyrenees pups born on a friends farm in Southern Ontario,” writes Mike. “Adopted a few weeks later, I suspect they are enjoying the good life and not reading the international news. Thanks for all the great advice!”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/06/16/glimmers/