Look out below

He’s from the Miramichi. Everybody knows the best fishing in New Brunswick is there. She’s from south Florida, and looks it. Now they own a place down the street from me – and a condo in the sunshine state which nobody wants to buy.

Incredibly there are 59,000 condos for sale in that one state. The most ever. Listings have exploded. Sales have tanked. Prices are plunging. It’s a real estate disaster – and likely only in its early stages.

Some folks look at what’s happening there and see parallels here. Detached home values in Vancouver, the GTA, Calgary and elsewhere may be slowly melting. But condos are a whole other thing. And they face serious, irreversible threats.

So what happened with all those units Canadian snowbirds bought? Right now they’re devaluing daily. Seven years ago half of all home sales in Florida were to foreign buyers. Now it’s down to 10%. Realtors report it’s hard to find a Canadian owner who has not signed a listing contract.

Face it. They’re pooched.

The Canadian dollar may be a tad stronger lately, but declines in the past year have meant living costs down south have become untenable for many little northern beavers. Climate change and some devastating hurricanes have boosted insurance premiums skyward. US mortgage rates have topped 7%. The 2021 collapse of the Champlain Towers South, squishing 98 people, spurred laws requiring all older buildings to be inspected, repaired, recertified and for condo boards to establish fat reserves. As a result, many owners are facing special assessments in the hundreds of thousands.

Then there’s Trump. The immigration raids, deportation of government non-supporters and deep polarization of American society is rattling the snowbirds. Now the border is scary, where agents can seize phones and scroll through social media posts looking for anything the orange guy might not like. For a while it seemed all Canadians would be finger-printed when they crossed. Now anyone staying over a month must register in a database Homeland Security maintains.

In short, risks abound and are multiplying. Meanwhile Canadians have to pay higher property taxes to own in Florida, and surrender a portion of their proceeds in the unlikely event they find a buyer for their unit.

As for Canada, certain markets are tilting towards a condo meltdown. Like the GTA – likely the first to suffer widespread and deep declines in value. Pre-con buyers have flooded the assignment market, desperate to unload their units before closing day, occupancy and the need to pony up the full purchase price. Tens of thousands of new units are hitting the market in 2025, pushing the inventory of unsold apartments beyond 17,000 in the GTA alone. Another 13,000 sit on the resale market.

As in the US, costs are escalating. Insurance premiums, condo/strata fees and property taxes are all on the rise. Mortgage rates are stuck in the mid-4% range. The economy is slowing and unemployment is swelling. And in cities (like Toronto and Vancouver) where investors own a huge swath of the condo market, falling rents are fostering landlord panic. Rental companies are routinely offering free transit passes, free months of rent, even free health care services in order to attract tenants. Meanwhile lower immigration levels and a serious slash in the ranks of foreign students mean there are far fewer renters.

As for Tariff Man, he swipes Canada, too. Most Canadians, polls tell us, now expect a recession. Confidence in America as a stable or trusted partner has fallen for 81% of the population. Buyers aren’t buying because they fear layoffs – and the future. Scenes of riots, soldiers with automatic rifles, government overreach and clouds of tear gas in LA sure don’t help.

Well, Canada is not America. Vancouver is not Dade or Orange County. Condo buildings are not collapsing here. We didn’t elect a radical as prime minister. We don’t fuss about the border and refuse to lump people into classes. In so many ways, this is the better country.

But a condo crash may still be coming. Be ready.

About the picture: “Here is Baby Jaxx, diligently taking notes on how to properly chew a stick, as demonstrated by his experienced older cousin, Whiskey,” writes Kathy in Vancouver. “Thank you for everything you’ve done for all of us here on the blog.  You are a true national treasure.  I am enjoying retirement only due to your wise advice over these many years.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/06/09/look-out-below/