The US Likely Has 8 Years—At Most—Before Crisis

Yesterday afternoon the US government published its annual report stating plainly that America has eight years left before a major financial crisis.

This is not hyperbole. This is not conjecture. This is not some wild conspiracy theory.

In fact, eight years until a crisis is probably the BEST CASE SCENARIO unless Congress takes serious action soon.

That’s because the most critical trust fund in the Social Security system (called OAS, or “Old Age Survivors) will be fully depleted.

That’s precisely what it says in the 2025 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of Social Security, signed by the US Secretary of Treasury just yesterday.

And once that OAS Trust Fund runs out of money, the report states that Social Security benefits will be immediately and permanently cut by at least 23%. And then the benefit cuts will likely become worse over time.

This will constitute a broken promise to 70+ million Americans who spent decades paying into a system that was supposed to be solvent by the time they retire.

Now, Social Security’s biggest trust fund running out of money in 2033 would be problematic enough.

But on top of that— by 2033, the total US national debt will be $52 TRILLION according to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates. And the CBO notoriously underestimates deficits… so in all likelihood the national debt will be event greater.

$52 trillion is so large that the government could easily be spending 40% of all tax revenue just to pay interest on the national debt.

Think about that. Not on defense. Not on infrastructure. Not even on the bloated entitlement programs Washington refuses to reform. Just interest.

These two things together— a massive annual interest bill combined with Social Security’s insolvency— will likely combine to a gargantuan fiscal crisis in the US. It’s eight years away.

Amazingly, politicians are not concerned. There is very little will to cut federal spending, or make necessary reforms that would allow Social Security to continue operating.

Foreign governments and central banks, on the other hand, clearly understand this problem.

They see how difficult it will be for the US to pay its debts in the not-so-distant future. And that’s why so many foreign institutions are dumping their US dollars and US government bonds.

In other words, foreigners are losing confidence in the US government, so they’re cashing out.

One of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend has been gold; we’ve been talking about this for a couple of years— as foreign governments and central banks dump their US dollars, they have been buying up record amounts of gold bullion.

This isn’t some ideological crusade—it’s a rational move for foreign governments and central banks; gold is liquid, fungible (i.e. standardized), globally recognized, and the market can absorb massive capital flows— hundreds of billions of dollars or more.

This is how they diversify to protect themselves from what will likely happen down the road in the US. You can do the same.

We have pointed out many times, however, that foreign governments and central banks buy gold. They do not buy gold companies.

This key difference has created a major disconnect between the price of gold (which is near a record high) and the valuations of gold companies (many of which are laughably cheap).

We have been writing about this trend for nearly two years, during which time the portfolio of gold companies (and other real asset businesses) has performed exceptionally well.

In our 4th Pillar investment research service, we pinpointed companies with world-class assets, great management, strong balance sheets, and dirt-cheap valuations. Then we shared them with subscribers.

The results speak for themselves:

• One of our top picks is up 153% in just three months.
• Another surged 146% over the past eleven months.
• Two more have gained 133% and 51% respectively in just a few months.
• Most other companies have delivered steady gains of “only” 27–34%.

For the sake of transparency we’ve had precisely ONE precious metals related company go the other way—it’s down 27%. But the fundamentals are solid, and with key catalysts on the horizon, we see it as even more undervalued now.

And our most recent issue, we spotlighted a profitable gold company trading for less than the cash on its balance sheet.

Talk about limited downside—you could buy the whole company, get all your money back in cash, and still own a cash-flowing gold business for free.

We are exceptionally proud of this research and the returns that we deliver to our premium subscribers.

That’s why we believe our full price of $1,995 per year is more than fair— especially with our 30-day no questions asked refund policy. We also recognize that’s a lot of money these days.

So a few months back, we offered the 4th Pillar at half-price, and those who joined have already seen enormous gains.

We’re not bringing that 50% offer back. But we are extending a limited-time 40% discount that still saves you $800 from the full price.

Our overall investment thesis still has plenty of upside remaining. So click here to learn more about joining The 4th Pillar today at a 40% discount.

Source

Simon Black is an international investor, entrepreneur and permanent traveler. His daily letter is both educational and entertaining, and we suggest that those who want unbiased, actionable information about global opportunities sign up for Sovereign Man’s free, actionable newsletter at http://www.SovereignMan.com.

From Simon Black of SovereignMan.com

Source: https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/153000-153000/