S&P 500 Clocks New Highs on Big Trade Deals

The U.S. stock market’s upward momentum continued in the trading week ending 25 July 2025.

The biggest market-moving headlines of the week that was came on Wednesday, 23 July 2025 as the U.S. announced it had reached tariff deals with both Japan and Indonesia. The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rose nearly 0.8% from the previous day’s close, as the trade deal with Japan was lauded as a potential model for U.S. trade negotiations with the European Union.

The S&P 500 would go on to rise 1.5% on the week, clocking new highs along the way before closing at 6,388.64 on Friday, 25 July 2025. The latest update of the alternative futures chart indicates investors are currently focusing on 2026-Q1 as they set current day stock prices.

While the big trade deals gave the market its biggest upward push, the week’s other market moving headlines, particularly related to China, cast shadows on the market’s overall outlook. China’s economy has been struggling with deflationary forces for some time, which have intensified in 2025. The past week’s headlines indicate the measures so far taken by China’s government to address them are not having the desired impact, prompting more top-down actions to combat the structural weakness within that nation’s economy.

That affects the U.S. stock market because that weakness combined with the Chinese government’s actions contribute to reduced demand for U.S. goods and services. That in turn puts limits on the growth prospects for U.S. companies and, by extension, their stock prices.

Here are the week’s market-moving headlines, which capture several aspects of these dynamics.

Monday, 21 July 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil slips as little impact seen from EU sanctions on Russia
• US not rushing trade deals ahead of August deadline, will talk with China, Bessent says

Fed minions hear they need to have their operations examined:

• US Treasury’s Bessent says Federal Reserve needs to be examined as an institution

Not-so-big stimulus developing in China as trade with U.S. picks up:

• China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged, as expected
• China’s exports of rare earth magnets to the US surge in June

• Exclusive: China quietly issues 2025 rare earth quotas, sources say

Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:

• Europe’s chemical industry seeks a lifeboat to stay in business
• EU to ramp up retaliation plans as US tariff deal prospects dim

S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record high closes, lifted by Alphabet

• Wall Street edged higher as tech earnings take center stage this week

Tuesday, 22 July 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices fall as tariff deadline looms

• High imports, soft summer demand weigh on US gasoline

US considering removing tax on capital gains on home sales, Trump says

Fed minions being primed to get new leadership, thinking about changing financial regulations:

• US Treasury chief: No need for Fed’s Powell to step down right now

• Trump says Fed’s Powell will be out in 8 months, calls him a ‘numbskull’

Bessent Calls For ‘Fundamental Reset’ Of Financial Regulations

• Bessent calls for deeper US bank regulatory reforms, scrapping dual capital requirements
• Fed’s Bowman: Fed independence is very important with respect to monetary policy-CNBC

Bigger stimulus developing in China:

• China embarks on world’s largest hydropower dam, capital markets cheer

• Explainer: Why China’s neighbours are worried about its new mega-dam project

BOJ minions not sure on next step after political shakeup in Japan:

• How Japan’s election outcome muddles the BOJ’s policy path

S&P 500 ekes out another record close Tuesday as traders react to latest earnings

• Wall Street closed mixed as investors weigh earnings and global trade developments

Wednesday, 23 July 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Trump strikes tariff deal with Japan, auto stocks surge

• US-Japan trade deal averts worst for global economy

• Japan, US agree to keep current 50% tariff on steel, aluminium, NHK reports

US, EU trade talks bolstered by Trump’s agreement with Japan

US existing home sales fall more than expected in June

Oil prices edge lower with trade talks in focus

Fed minions thinking about who will lead Fed next as pressure for rate cut builds, also thinking about rewriting bank regulations:

• Trump again calls for Fed board to act, says Powell ‘doesn’t get it’
• Fed officials, banking experts discuss regulatory rewrite effort at conference

BOJ minions see positives in US-Japan trade deal:

• BOJ sees trade deal as raising chance of meeting inflation goal

Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:

• Chinese automakers gain ground in contracting European market, data shows

• China’s yuan undervaluation fuels euro zone trade deficit, German study shows

EU to advance retaliation on US goods as tariff hike looms

S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally to record highs on optimism about trade deals

• Wall Street rises, Dow ends less than 4 points shy of record close
• Silver’s hot streak gathers pace; market at highest since 2011

Thursday, 24 July 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US new home sales below expectations in June; housing supply rises
• Oil prices gain on US trade optimism, drop in crude inventories

Chief Fed minion gives tour of Fed’s $2.5 billion taxpayer-funded remodeling project to U.S. President:

• Trump presses Powell to cut rates during tense visit to Fed

Actions to combat deflation developing in China:

• China releases draft law amendment to help curb price wars

• Markets bet Beijing is getting serious about China’s overcapacity

BOJ minions get reason to avoid hiking Japan’s interest rates, for now:

• Japan’s factory activity slips into contraction in July, PMI shows

ECB minions pauses changes in Eurozone interest rates after year of cuts:

• ECB keeps rates steady as it awaits clarity over trade

• ECB rate decision as it happened: Rates helds at 2% amid trade uncertainty
• VIEW ECB leaves rates steady after a year of easing

Euro zone business activity growth hits 11-month high in July, PMI shows

• European car sales slump in June as automakers’ woes deepen
• German private sector growth remains tepid in July, PMI shows

S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record closes, lifted by Alphabet

• Wall Street ended mixed after Tesla and Alphabet earnings and rising yields

Friday, 25 July 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil steady as investors weigh trade optimism against potential Venezuelan supply increase
• Trump says US may not have a negotiated trade deal with Canada
• Trump says there is a 50-50 chance of trade deal with EU

Chief Fed minion weighing next career step:

• Investors weigh market impact of possible early Powell exit
• Trump suggests Fed Chair may cut interest rates

Bigger trouble developing as root causes of deflationary pressures outweigh efforts to regulate them in China:

• China’s Instant Retail Price War Intensifies Despite Regulatory Pressure
• Reform, not relief: China has more to worry about than just deflation

• China’s Premier tells EU leaders ‘we can’t afford’ massive industrial subsidies
• Could China Stop Exporting Deflation?

BOJ minions still thinking about more rate hikes:

• Trade deal clears way for BOJ to tiptoe back to rate hikes

ECB minions working to sell pause in rate cuts, bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Euro zone economy holds up even as ECB speakers look to temper market view of no more cuts
• Euro zone companies warn of slowing economy, China competition, ECB poll shows

• The EU is no longer benefitting economically from its trade with China: Natixis

Wall Street closed the week on a high note as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set fresh records

• S&P 500, Nasdaq close at records; Deckers soars on UGG demand

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool forecasts the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate in its current target range of 4.25-4.50% until its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, when it is expected to cut the rate by a quarter percent. Beyond that date, the FedWatch tool anticipates additonal quarter point rate cuts at 12-week intervals on 10 December (2025-Q4), 18 March (2026-Q1), and 29 July (2026-Q3).

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 held steady at +2.4% this week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is excited by trade deals with Japan and Indonesia”. Normally, when we prompt for a Wall Street bull, the AI will draw the bull wearing a suit. We can only imagine that it must be pretty hot in New York City while the bull is celebrating the S&P 500′s new record highs!