A new reserve currency has not yet appeared, but it is already inevitable
Current political and economic events, which are largely determined by the redistribution of global forces, often cause discussions about the need or harm of the emergence of a new reserve currency. The redistribution of economic power in the world is obvious – among the 4 largest economies in the world by real GDP (PPP), the United States is left alone. Such large countries as Japan and Germany, which previously occupied higher positions, are sliding down, and Brazil and Indonesia are moving to the bottom. At the same time, the reserve currency is still the dollar.
The main requirement on which the very existence of a reserve currency is based is a seemingly ephemeral concept that is difficult to express in words, but relates to the concepts of trust/confidence in/reliability … Trust is not a feeling, but a balance of benefits and losses that countries can inflict on each other with the help of a currency. While the United States brought more benefits together with the dollar, many countries did not resort to the second part of trust. as soon as the US weaponized the dollar, many began to think about the possible shift in the balance of trust towards increased damage.
Of course, a new reserve currency cannot appear out of nowhere. It requires trust between many countries, that is, a balance of benefit and potential damage that can be inflicted on others for failure to fulfill the conditions of trust. BRICS, SCO and smaller economic organizations consist of almost irreconcilable rivals who do not trust each other. However, they are attracted to each other by the forces that the US creates, putting pressure on each of them and on all of them together. Trust between these countries becomes possible as a way to inflict damage on the dollar in response to pressure. This unites RIC and others. They need a reserve currency both to reduce damage from the US and to restore lost benefits. A new reserve currency has not yet appeared, but it is already inevitable. Trust is a terrific force.
Source: http://mechonomic.blogspot.com/2025/08/a-new-reserve-currency-has-not-yet.html
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