Are we there yet?

West Van agent Allan Angell has been around the block a few times. The guy has survived in one of the planet’s craziest real estate environments for 53 years.

So when he comes up with a chart like the one below, it’s worth noting. In it Angell proves that the current conditions – the first half of 2025 – have set new generational lows for real estate activity across the Lower Mainland. Yeah, almost every single hood and burg.

The stats this chart contains stand in contrast to the latest realtor cartel report which tells the public: “The June data showed early signs of sales activity in the region turning a corner, and these latest figures for July are confirming this emerging trend.”

Are we turning a corner, or are these numbers proof that a region where people cannot afford properties will inevitably see prices crater?

Source: The Angell Report

Back in the godless GTA, another vet – Robert Ede – is calling this period “The Drought before the Storm.” This, he claims, is a rerun of 1995, as a flaccid market sees “super-cautious” buyers who are only interested in deep-discount deals. Those sellers who don’t receive offers are usually asking too much, unwilling to meet the market, routinely re-listing to try and make their property look fresh and clogging up inventory. They’re the zombie listings.

“Far too many properties are for sale in non-prime or brand-new areas,” he adds, “being sold by non-resident investors who know they are unhappy with their buying decision but don’t (yet) feel squeezed-enough to bail-out at the available offering-prices.” So they sit. Zombies.

A fresh report by Robert Hogue at RBC paints a picture of declining prices for the next six or nine months – right into the rutting season of 2026. The reason: more listings now (67,000 of them in Ontario alone) than at any time since 2010, when the average Toronto house sold for $431,000 (you can now add a ‘1’ in front of that).

All that inventory stacked up is going to keep valuations under pressure, he says. And here’s a shocker… in June of 2010 there were almost 65,000 home sales in Ontario. This past June the number of deals had collapsed to less than 17,000. Yup, a 74% drubbing.

Sales for the year will be down about 10%, Hogue says, with the average price falling into the first half of 2026. So far, we’re off more than 20% from the post-pandemic peak of 2022. And more to come. But not a crash – just that slow melt this pathetic blog forecast ages ago.

“The pandemic’s impact on the housing market appears to have run its course. Exceptional circumstances—including rock bottom interest rates, government income support, and shifting housing needs—accelerated transactions that would have occurred later. The subsequent market slump triggered by rate hikes in 2022 largely corrected this unsustainable surge.

“We anticipate prices will decline in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 with Ontario and B.C. experiencing the steepest drops due to high inventory levels and strong competition among sellers. Nationally, prices are expected to decline by 0.7% in 2026, reversing this year’s modest increase.”

Of course, events could change everything. Economists still expect two Bank of Canada rate cuts by Christmas. Variable-rate mortgages will benefit, and five-year money should grow a ‘3’ handle later in the autumn. There’s a pivotal federal budget coming in the next six or eight weeks, expected to be spendy, stimulative, expansive and contain new billions for housing. Plus, we still have Trump to deal with since 2026 will bring negotiations over the existing free-trade agreement with the US, which the orange guy could blow off.

Historic numbers of properties to choose from. Scant competition among buyers. Mortgage rates about to decline. Prices melting. Sales in retreat.

Is this shaping up to be a unique buying opportunity, or the drought before the storm?

Seems obvious.

About the picture: “Fully-balled, funny ‘Fred’ jumped onto my pal’s lap during our Similkameen vineyard overstay late June,” writes Leslie. “He was demanding and accepting of all attentions and any food type. After lapping, Fred retired to the footstool for a photography session. Innkeeper explained he has no idea from whence Fred hails and, “We just call him Fred. He appears from time to time.” It would not surprise me to see Fred pulling down cherries which were batchfully abundant amongst the orchards despite drought conditions (which have deeply worsened since then). I would like to know what Felix has to say about lone-stalking bachelors like Fred.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/08/18/are-we-there-yet-6/