The game plan

Ted wrote this week. Nine months after his deepest fears had been addressed on this blog. Apparently it didn’t work.

To recap, Ted and Amber sold their house for big bucks, bought a live-on boat and invested the rest. Two million. No income, no pensions, few expenses, hoping the nestegg lasts until the finish line.

When Trump won last November, Ted wrote. “What is there on the horizon but trouble?” he asked.

“At the age of 73 I am hoping I kick the bucket before things get truly ugly but if Trump follows Hitler’s game plan the concentration camp fences will go up next May. Will Musk tamp him down? Will the GOP yank Trump on a 25th amendment move and they go to Vance who may be worse? Who knows? A part of me says we are invested and the oligarchs will not want the US markets to tank so we are on the correct side of the fence. We hope.”

Back  before the chaos began, prior to the 51st state babble, we tried at assuage poor, vexed Ted. The next year, 2025, should be good in the US, we said. “The S&P 500 will cruise past 6,000 soon (never before), the GDP will stay in the 2-3% range (quite nice), unemployment will hover near 4% (close to an historic low), wages and incomes will rise (now increasing at 4.6% – twice the cost of living), inflation will stay about where it is, and the Fed will keep cutting – although less than expected.”

All happened (but that Fed cut has been delayed until September 17th).

We also said this:

Will Trump try to diddle with the Fed? Probably. But boss Jerome Powell bravely said the president would have to wrestle the central bank from his cold, dead hands. He’s not quitting and won’t be fired. There until 2026. At least one adult will be left in the room.

Will Trump continue to stack the Supreme Court? Yes. The people’s last guardrail against excessive executive power has been removed.

Will Trump throw Ukraine under the bus? Will the US weaken NATO? Will Taiwan have reason to fret? Yes to all. Vlad Putin’s a happy guy this week. America seems ready to turtle into an isolationist role – and that dramatically increases the potential for global realignment and conflict.

Will Trump focus on goosing equity markets, enriching American corporations, fostering full employment, gutting regulations, feeding cowboy capitalism, and enabling those tech billionaires who lifted his campaign? Yes. Siri and Alexa will reign. Tesla. AI bots. The Mag Seven.

Will Trump exacerbate climate crises, be irrational, unpredictable, continue to undermine fact-based media, let crypto run wild, risk a global trade war and recession, escape jail and grow more extreme? Probably.

That stuff happened, too. What we missed was the fact Trump was serious about returning to a 19th Century economic strategy of tariffs, the trashing of Canada, the aggression about deportations, the authoritarianism and the lies about ending wars in 24 hours. Plus Epstein. And Alligator Alcatraz.

Now Ted writes me again. “Much of it – and more – has and is happening. Concentration camp fences went up right on schedule as I predicted; Trump’s gestapo-like ICE is now kidnapping law-abiding US citizens off the streets and just today I learned that Washington DC has federal agents walking the streets and removing homeless people. The plan appears to be to foment sufficient unrest to justify imposing martial law and “postponing” the November mid-term elections.

“Trump denies ever having read Mein Kampf but we know he lies routinely. Hitler invaded Poland six years after he rose to power as chancellor. Assuming Trump is following Hitler’s schedule as he seems to be, he would be on schedule to invade and annex Canada (at least southern Ontario) sometime in the spring of 2030.

“Would Europe stand up to help defend us? Hell no they wouldn’t. Brussels is not going to nuke the white house in defence of 24 Sussex.

“So, your advice sir? Stay invested and hope for the best? Sell up and homestead in Bancroft? Moving the yacht downriver to the sea is probably a non-starter after hostilities start as we would be unlikely to get past Eisenhower lock. This is keeping me up at night.”

There is no defence against fear. But Ted has eyes. He sees the descent of America into the clutches of one-party ideology as that country’s system of checks and balances fails. With Congress, the Senate, the White House, the Supreme Court and the military in his pocket, while universities, law firms, big media and tech giants yield to him, this is Trump’s USA. All the while his net worth has ballooned as the line between public service and private gain is erased.

Clearly there is more to come from this man as he politicizes public data and monetary policy, reshapes global trade while reigning down retribution upon critics and progressives. By his own hand, and circumstance, he will likely be the most powerful and autocratic president in American history.

Meanwhile at 74, Ted can worry about this – things he cannot control – or he can try to live his best life. Certainly his investments have plumped and continue to do well. More record highs for markets this week. More to come, too, since the Trump agenda favours those with assets, investments and wealth. There is no sane option but to stay invested and remain diversified.

Nobody (certainly not a pathetic free blog) can predict this world in 2030. We only know for certain, Ted, you will be years older. Do not waste them.

About the picture: “I have been following you for years and years and I don’t think you have ever covered this topic, The Request for Child Rearing Provision,” writes Mike. “My wife has not yet filed for CPP and I want to know if it is worth the work to dig down to our 1985 to 1997 income tax years to figure out who claimed what to qualify. My wife has only worked part time before and after the kiddos so is it a waste of time or should I slog through those old docs (which I may actually have) or not. Attached is Brady who is no longer with us.” (Answer to come in a future post.)

To be in touch or sed a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.