The test

Source: Ann Kennedy, Facebook

In a committee room in the Centre Block, around that big horseshoe-shaped table, with translators sitting behind smoked glass while clerks and Parliamentary Library researchers shuffled papers, a clutch of MPs debated the fate of mortgages in Canada.

The government wanted to throw out the rules, allowing people to buy houses with no money down and financing spread over 40 years. This day on the Finance Committee, led by 29-year-old Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre, the government MPs squared up behind the idea. The opposition members, in minority, opposed.

So did I, arguing we would create a mother of a housing bubble. My negative vote led to a tie, forced public hearings and ultimately resulted in me being thrown out of the Con caucus for the multiple crimes of defying the prime minister and blogging about it.

It was the early winter of 2006. Afterwards the party whip came to visit, warn and threaten me. On his feet in the House of Commons, Poilievre called me out and lustily defended the 0%-40 year home loans – subsequently approved.

Within one year a stunning 40% of all new mortgages in Canada were being amortized over four decades, and no-money-down purchases plus interest-only payments had escalated home prices at the same time the US housing market was starting to freefall.

One year later we were in a financial crisis. Stocks crashed in 2008. Wall Street banks collapsed. Unemployment jumped. Ottawa hastily retreated. In July the max mortgage finance term was cut to 35 years (and would be chopped again to 30, then 25) and buyers were told they’d need a downpayment of at least 5%. The policy had failed. Worse, it backfired.

There was a federal election that year. The Harper government poured a lot of resources into my riding – where I was no longer the party candidate – and, as I expected, blew me away. But real estate values continued to rise. And never stopped.

This small story brings us to tomorrow night, when Poilievre (now 46) runs in an Alberta byelection to regain the seat he lost in this year’s federal election. It’s a consequential event. He’s party leader now, and a year ago everybody expected he’d be PM after the Trudeau decade ended. But the election went badly for PP. Trump emerged as the key issue, yet Poilievre missed it.

He lost his own seat. So now he gets a do-over, thanks to Mark Carney who called a byelection for the earliest possible date. The current PM also let Poilievre and his family live in Stornaway, the luxury mansion in Ottawa’s Rockcliffe area reserved for the sitting leader of the opposition at taxpayer expense, while he tries to get re-elected.

The old riding was Carleton, in the urban capital region. The new one is Battle River-Crowfoot, in rural Alberta. It’s about as Con as you can get in this country. The recently-elected MP who stepped aside to make this byelection possible harvested 82.4% of the vote in April. The data from recent elections suggests a three-legged, castrated, half-blind beagle named Lucky would also be sent to Ottawa so long as it had a blue collar.

Source: The Daily Writ

But this vote is different. There are two hundred candidates, thanks to a pesky electoral reform group trying to make a point. The Libs are running a half-decent guy – a former oilman. And a woman who was with the Canadian Forces for 22 years is making waves and headlines as a credible indy choice. So many people are on the ballot that Elections Canada decided to give voters a blank space so they could write in their choice, instead of having them wade through pages of names.

The officials also said spelling wouldn’t count. For a guy named ‘Poilievre’ that’s a good thing.

Well, will PP win tomorrow?

Of course he will. But the main focus for many will be the margin of victory. Will this incredibly high-profile person, an MP for the past 21 years, leader of the opposition forces and presumed national victor just months ago, gain 82% of the vote?

If the count is less, underperforming the historic average, it could presage trouble when his leadership is reviewed in January. If he sails past that marker, his reaffirmation as leader is secure. Meanwhile the latest national polling suggests the Cons have work to do. The Libs are at 45% nationally and PP’s party is at 36% – a slide from election day. Poilievre is viewed unfavourably by 57% of Canadians and favourably by 38%.

Much can change, of course. Once the Conservative leader is back in the House of Commons bulldogging the prime minister, he will on centre stage daily – his comfort zone. But will he alter his message from wall-to-wall negativity to one of nation-building? At a time when the US president is omnipotent and threatening, most people don’t want an ankle-biter making us feel worse, failed and inferior.

Can he pivot?

Or will he remain the same hero I watched doing battle, taking no prisoners, shredding opponents, being so cocky and right, all for the wrong side?

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/08/17/the-test-2/