S&P 500 Mostly Moving Sideways as August 2025 Ends

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) touched two new record highs during the week that was, but as the week came to an end, it gave back those gains and closed out the trading week ending on Friday, 29 August 2025 at 6,460.26, just 0.1% below where it closed the previous week.

In other words, stock prices are more-or-less moving mostly sideways in accordance with prophecy! Specifically, the second of two scenarios we outlined in the previous edition of the S&P 500 chaos series for how stock prices would behave under a specific condition:

Should investors shift their time horizon inward to the nearer term, the rally in stock prices could continue. How high stock prices might rise in that event would be determined by how far into the future they might shift their focus. If that doesn’t happen and investors stay focused on 2026-Q2, then stock prices will mostly move sideways within a relatively narrow range.

The latest update of the alternative futures-based chart reveals the trajectory of the S&P 500 over the past week mostly moved sideways, with investors remaining focused on the distant future quarter of 2026-Q2.

How long investors might maintain their attention on 2026-Q2 will depend upon the random onset of new information. Here are the headlines from the major market-moving headlines that influenced investor expectations during the final trading week of August 2025.

Monday, 25 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices rise as Russia-Ukraine war threatens supply disruption

• Russian oil refineries, terminals burn as Ukraine hits Putin’s war economy

New US home sales fall as high borrowing costs stifle housing demand

Market expecting Fed minions to cut rates in September:

• Wall Street ramps up bets on September rate cut after Powell’s dovish tone

China stock market boosted by Fed’s signal of coming rate cuts:

• Fed pivot bolsters world stocks, China shares at highest since 2022

• From default to delisting of Evergrande, world’s most indebted developer

Chief BOJ minion says wage inflation coming to Japan:

• BOJ’s Ueda expects tightening job market to push up wages

Chief ECB minion says foreign workers key to slow growth Eurozone economy:

• Foreign workers have boosted euro zone economy, ECB’s Lagarde says

Wall Street ended lower as Dow retreats from record level ahead of Nvidia earnings

Tuesday, 26 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• South Korea bets big on reviving troubled US shipbuilding to woo Trump
• Oil falls 2% from nearly three-week high; focus on tariffs, Russian supply

• Bessent says US tariff revenue could be well over $500 billion a year

Axe falls on Fed minion with alleged mortgage fraud problem, other Fed minions hint era of low rates is not over:

• Trump says he is firing Fed’s Cook over mortgage loan allegations

• Fed Governor Cook will sue to keep her job as Trump mulls replacement
• Fed Governor Cook’s mortgages: What’s known and what’s not

Fed’s Williams says low neutral interest rate era is not over

Fed’s Logan sees room to lower reserves, expects uptick in SRF use next month

BOJ minions have more to worry about:

• Trump’s Fed battle raises risks of ever-higher yields for Japan

S&P 500 ends higher after Trump attacks Fed; Nvidia climbs

Wednesday, 27 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil edges up on US crude stocks drop, impact of US tariffs on India
• European Union mulls removing US tariffs this week, Bloomberg News reports

Fed minions still claim they need more data before resuming rate cuts:

• Fed’s Williams says needs to see how data play out to consider September cut – CNBC

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s industrial profits extend decline as demand, deflation woes take toll
• China seeks a silver lining as it tells companies to target older consumers
• China aims to triple AI chip output, reducing Nvidia’s dependency, FT says

Tariff-related economic slowing developing in Japan:

• Japan remains cautious on economic impact of tariffs in August report

S&P 500 notches record close as Wall Street advanced ahead of Nvidia’s earnings

• S&P 500 notches record close; traders turn to Nvidia results

Thursday, 28 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil settles higher as traders await Trump statement on Russia-Ukraine
• US second-quarter GDP revised higher as businesses boost investment in AI
• EU to scrap tariffs on US goods to pave way for lower car duties

Fed minion makes show of fighting back against firing, offers no evidence against mortgage fraud allegations against her

• Fed’s Lisa Cook sues Trump over move to fire her

BOJ minion worried about Japan’s trade policies:

• BOJ policymaker warns of trade policy risks, looks to tankan for guidance

ECB minions thinking philosophical thoughts:

• Erosion of Fed independence would lead to higher inflation, ECB’s Rehn says

S&P 500 topped 6,500 and another record close as Wall Street ended in the green

• S&P 500, Dow score record high closes as Nvidia results buttress AI rally

• Nvidia slips as Q2 results, guidance top estimates; unveils $60B buyback
• Nvidia growth outlook hit by China uncertainty

Friday, 29 August 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US PCE inflation in July no obstacle to September Fed rate cut

• Instant View: US core PCE firms slightly but matches expectations

Oil prices fall with expected weaker demand, possible peace deal

• US oil production hit record high in June, EIA says

US low-value package tariff exemption ends, raising costs for shippers, consumers

• What the end of the de minimis exemption means for US shoppers and businesses

Fed minion’s legal problems continue to mount, another minion thinking sooner better than later to set new course for monetary policies:

• Pulte Ups Cook Scrutiny With DOJ Referral on Third Mortgage

• Lisa Cook hints at clerical error in mortgage dispute; new criminal referral filed
• Hearing ends without ruling on Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Cook

SF Fed’s Daly: Will soon be time to recalibrate policy

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China’s factory activity seen shrinking again on soft demand, job woes – Reuters poll

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• German unemployment tops three million for first time in a decade

Nasdaq slides 1% as chip stocks weigh, with Wall Street posting a marginal weekly loss

• S&P 500 ends lower as Dell and Nvidia drop

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter percent at its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting. Looking further forward, the FedWatch tool forecasts no rate cut in October, which it had a week earlier, but still anticipates additional quarter point rate cuts will take place on 10 December (2025-Q4) and 28 January (2026-Q1) .

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 vaulted to +3.5% after registering +2.3% annualized growth in the preceding week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear turning their heads sideways to look at a stock market chart for the SP 500 that shows a flat trend”. We then generated a speech bubble and put the words “I GUESS WE’RE GOING… SIDEWAYS?!” into the bear’s mouth to complete the cartoon.