S&P 500 Retreats as Investors Shift Focus to 2026-Q2

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) hit a brand new record high of 6,693.75 on Monday, 22 September 2025 before retreating in the following days. By the time the trading week ended on Friday, 26 September 2025, the index sat at 6,643.70, down 0.3% from where it closed the preceding week.

The most significant market-moving news of the week continued to be related to the prospects of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates further. Only this week, the Fed’s minions hit the media circuit with mixed messages about what additional actions they might take after last week’s quarter point rate cut and left the perception they wanted to take back some of the rate cuts investors had come to expect.

Those mixed messages combined with the week’s data flow to affect investor expectations for what rate cuts might happen and when. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool projects two more quarter point cuts in 2025, coming on 29 October (2025-Q4) and 10 December (2025-Q4), then pausing until the second quarter of 2026 before resuming with another quarter point reduction on 29 April (2026-Q2). Last week, investors had expected the next rate cut would take place in 2026-Q1.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart captures that shift in the time horizon of investors over the past week. The trajectory of the S&P 500 moved from the projected forecast associated with investors focusing on 2026-Q1 to the lower projected path associated with investors fixing their attention on 2026-Q2.

The shift in investor time horizon represents a new Lévy flight event.

What happens with stock prices next will depend upon the random onset of new information investors will absorb in the next week. Here is our summary of the market-moving headlines investors weighed during the trading week ending on 26 September 2025.

Monday, 22 September 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices dip as Iraq increases exports amid demand concerns
• Trump to impose $100,000 fee per year for H-1B visas, in blow to tech

• US new H-1B visa fee will not apply to existing holders, White House says
• Trump’s New H-1B Visa Regulation Sends Shockwaves Through Big Tech

Computer Science Grads Face 7.5% Unemployment: AI Job Cuts Crush Coding Dream

Fed minions sow doubt against more rate cuts:

• Fed officials throw doubt on need for further cuts

• Fed’s Bostic sees no further rate cuts this year, WSJ reports
• Fed’s Hammack still focused on inflation, calls for caution in easing policy

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China keeps lending rates unchanged in Sept as trade tensions ease

BOJ minions accused of being little different from JapanGov minions:

• Japan PM contender Hayashi backs BOJ rate-hike strategy

• Japanese PM contender and chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: BOJ is conducting monetary policy in way that does not deviate much from govt thinking

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Euro zone consumers cut spending on tariff fears, shun US goods, ECB says

Wall Street closed at record levels ahead of further inflation data

• Wall St indexes post record closing highs again, with Nvidia, tech shares higher
• Gold’s record-breaking rally: who’s keeping it going?

Tuesday, 23 September 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil gains as restart of Kurdistan oil exports stalls
• US business activity moderates; inflation outlook improves

Fed minions sending mixed messages:

• Fed’s Powell strikes middle path on inflation, jobs, as others take sides

• Fed’s Powell: Repeats no risk-free path as Fed balances job, inflation risks
• There’s no risk-free policy path when both sides of mandate at risk, Powell says

Miran defends low-rate view as colleagues caution on further cuts

Fed’s Bowman: Fed needs to be decisive in fending off job market risks

• Fed’s Bowman shifts concern to labor market

Fed’s Bostic says inflation risks still present in US economy

Fed’s Goolsbee, on CNBC, says Fed has room to cut rates

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• Some Chinese firms pretend to comply with mandated social insurance payments as business struggles

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone as biggest economies are dragging growth down:

• Eurozone business activity grows at fastest pace in 16 months despite French weakness

• Exclusive: German economic institutes revise up 2025 growth forecast to 0.2%, sources say
• Euro zone business activity hits 16-month high but highlights country divergence, PMI shows

Wall Street breaks winning streak as Powell reiterates message from last week

• Wall Street indexes end lower as investors digest Powell comments
• Gold surges to new peak on safe-haven demand, Fed rate cut bets

Wednesday, 24 September 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil gains, lower US crude stockpiles provide floor

• ‘Right now we are bleeding’: Oilfield execs dour in Dallas Fed energy survey

US new home sales jump to more than 3-1/2-year high; economists dismiss rise as a fluke

Fed minions continue sending mixed messages about future for more rate cuts:

• Fed’s Daly: Further rate cuts will likely be needed
• Fed’s Goolsbee says US jobs market steady, cautions against aggressive rate cuts, FT reports

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s COMAC falls behind on C919 aircraft delivery targets, filings show
• Exclusive: G7 weighs price floors for rare earths to counter China’s dominance, sources say

BOJ minions seriously thinking about hiking Japan’s interest rates in October:

• Some BOJ policymakers called for future rate hikes, July minutes show

• Ex-BOJ policymaker Adachi says October rate hike cannot be ruled out

U.S. stocks fall as tech sector struggles, rate-cut uncertainties rattle markets

• Wall St indexes slip after Powell flags inflated stock valuations

Thursday, 25 September 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• U.S. Q2 GDP revised higher to +3.8% on strength of the consumer

• US economy notches fastest growth pace in nearly two years in second quarter

US goods trade deficit contracts sharply in August

• US, Chinese officials to meet at Treasury for technical talks on trade, source says
• US implements EU trade deal, 15% autos tariffs retroactive to Aug 1

Oil pulls back from seven-week high

US weekly jobless claims reverse prior surge, labor market still softening

• US companies announce layoffs to cut costs

US existing home sales dip in August

Fed minions claim they have US interest rates right where they want them, but may want to cut them more, thinking about redoing regulations:

• KC Fed’s Schmid sees current policy rate as ‘right place to be’

• Fed’s schmid: currently fed is close to meeting its mandates, but policy must look forward.

Fed’s Daly: ‘A little bit more’ rate cutting likely needed ‘over time’

Fed’s Miran presses case for fast rate cuts, but other policymakers push back

• Exclusive: Fed’s Miran math may overstate the impact of immigration on inflation

Fed’s Bowman says regulators to unveil Basel capital rule redo by early 2026

Fed’s Lisa Cook urges US Supreme Court to reject Trump’s bid to fire her

• Lisa Cook Tells Supreme Court There Will Be Market “Chaos And Disruption” If She Is Fired

Bigger trade deal developing in China:

• China signals that purchases of US soybeans hinge on tariff removal

Wall Street ended in the red after jobless claims fell and Q2 GDP was revised higher

• Wall Street indexes finish lower, data raises uncertainty for rate-cut outlook

Friday, 26 September 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Core inflation rate held at 2.9% in August, as expected, Fed’s gauge shows

• Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Shows No Sign Of Runaway Tariff Costs, As Savings Rate Slides

Oil gains on Ukraine drone attacks cutting Russian supply

• US oil and gas rig count rises to highest since June, Baker Hughes says

Fed minions keep sending mixed messages:

• Fed’s Bowman says decisive rate cuts needed to offset labor market risks
• Fed’s Barkin: Risks to both inflation, jobs, may be limited
• Trump urges Supreme Court in new filing to allow his firing of Fed’s Lisa Cook

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• EU plans 25% to 50% tariffs on Chinese steel, related products, Handelsblatt reports
• Trump slaps steep US tariffs on drugs, heavy trucks and furniture

• More US tariffs? China’s ‘Furniture Kingdom’ says it’s already moved on

China is confident in sustaining economic growth, premier says

• China urges state giants to lead opposition to excessive competition

BOJ minions expected to hike Japan’s interest rates:

• BOJ likely to hike rates to 1.5% under Ueda, former board member predicts

Wall Street ended higher after PCE index data arrived in line with estimates

• Wall Street ends higher after as-expected inflation data; S&P 500, Nasdaq post weekly declines
• Gold firms as inflation data keeps Fed rate cut bets alive

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q3 jumped to +3.9% after last week’s forecast of +3.3% annualized growth.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon with a Wall Street bull wearing a suit who is pulling a wagon filled with boxes that say EXPECTED RATE CUTS with Federal Reserve officials sneakily trying to take some boxes away”.