The builders who can’t

Just days after the prime minister launched Build Canada Homes, the vision blew up.

The feds are committing $36 billion in tax dollars to jumpstart housing, throw up half a million new units a year and Make Canada Affordable Again.

Alas, the builders say phooey. It’s impossible. The industry is collapsing.

“Forget achieving the federal government’s goal of 500,000 homes per year, over the next few years it will be a stretch to keep annual housing starts in the 200,000 range,” said the industry in a media release this morning. “Due to layoffs and a drought in future housing supply, residential construction workers and hardworking families looking to find a home in the 2027-2031 period will be the ones that bear the brunt of inaction.”

Last month, for example, in the country’s biggest market a scant 300 new units sold. Despite all that three levels of government have done to slash red tape, speed up approvals and trash local zoning regs, that was 42% below piteous year-ago levels and a devastating 81% under the ten-year average.

New project launches are at a record low. Dozens of developments have been mothballed. Condo sales are running 90% below the long-term norm and single-family home sales have sunk 60%.

Inventory is piling up. In the GTA alone there are now 22,245 unsold units, of which 16,447 are condominiums. This is the greatest amount on record – enough to satisfy the market for 20 months if a single new unit were not built until the summer of 2027. And by then, says the Building Industry and Land Development association, thousands of trades would be laid off.

By the way, this is how many people work in this biz, according to a new study by the University of Ottawa.

Source: University of Ottawa

And this is not just a Toronto disaster, say the builders. Most major markets in the country are going to see a mounting shortage of new units in the near future and the consequences of that – namely, higher prices, lower affordability and more generational angst.

“Greater Vancouver is seeing a third of its normal activity and will be soon in a similar place, many other Ontario markets like Ottawa and the Kitchener-Waterloo area are struggling, and we are now seeing even some troubling signs in Calgary. Why is the government ignoring these obvious warning signs?”

The current collapse will worsen, says the Missing Middle Initiation of the University of Ottawa. “It should alarm policymakers across all three orders of government,” it concludes. In reviewing 34 municipalities, the academics found housing starts in the first six months of this year have plunged 40% below the four-year average, and pre-con sales fading 70% for singles and 89% for condos.

The dump in pre-sales means the pipeline will empty, says the university. About 24,000 person-years of employment will be lost in a single province. Half of that will be in the GTA alone. The problem, is adds, “is not isolated to the condo market.”

CMHC itself – the federal housing agency – says starts will fall by 30,000 within the next two years. The university study claims if pre-sales are reduced by a similar amount that the sector as a whole will lose 100,000 jobs.

“When 15,000 automotive manufacturing jobs were at risk after the financial crisis, governments acted aggressively. Given that Canada needs more homes, we need to see all three orders of government take bold steps to reverse the slide in housing starts and pre-construction sales.”

Okay, what does this mean?

Unless there’s a major reason for consumer optimism to suddenly flourish (heaps of interest rate drops, world peace or Trump quits?) there’s no reason to expect sales to rebound. Without sales, builders cannot get financing. With that, they don’t build. It doesn’t matter how much cash Carney throws around, the end result will be drought of market housing. Yes, we may well have thousands of new non-market social units built (which are badly needed) but not hundreds of thousands of new middle-class homes each and every year for the next decade.

There’s only one conclusion for when the world finally brightens.

Sadly, kids, you know what that is.

About the picture: “Here is ‘Jesse’ on the day she was brought home from the AARCS Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society,” writes A.P.Anther. “Jesse is one of several dogs rescued from a life of misery and abandonment by two gentle and loving people residing in Edmonton. It goes without saying that each dog has in turn rescued those same two people who would be lost at sea without a dog in their home. Close examination of Jesse’s expression in this photo reveals the primary element of canine and human salvation.  Gratitude.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/09/23/the-builders-who-cant/