Buyers on top

The nice old house on the corner’s been for sale now for two years. Nothing wrong with it – the place was bought as a high-end flip. They paid $2.6 million. Threw a mill into is. Listed for four.

It’s beautiful. But it sits. Now the owner says he’d take $3.6 million (for a modest loss, and eat two years of carrying costs), but no offers. Things have turned, and unless he’s willing to lose hundreds of thousands (sale price minus commission, minus purchase price + land transfer tax + renos + overhead) no offer will materialize.

In real estate, as this blog has chronicled, everything’s changed. The FOMO vanished. Trump’s time has become one of drama, surprise, uncertainty and anxiety. Listings have piled up as sales wilted. The new housing business is a complete mess. House prices have fallen, but gradually and not enough to overcome buyer worry. Immigration levels, including the ranks of foreign students, have been slashed. Rents are falling, Landlords are losing money. Tens of thousands of new and resale homes are available, but not moving.

And yet good houses in demand areas, plus those offered at decent prices, disappear in hours or days. Properties where sellers cling to 2002 or 2023 pricing – like the guy on the corner – grow stale and forgotten.

This is a market that buyers dominate. They have the power, the leverage, the control and the cards. But they also need courage.

How can you detect a buyer’s market?

Easily. The first indicator is supply – the number of listings available at any one time. For the past year in almost all major markets they’ve piled up on MLS as sellers vastly outnumber buyers and MOI (months of inventory) climbs. Also keep an eye on SNLR – the ratio of sales to new listings – a rapid and accurate snapshot of market enthusiasm and emotion.

Canada’s most outrageous example: 30,000 current resale listings in the GTA, coupled with 21,000 unsold new-build units. Historic.

Of course, sales volumes are critical. Lousy sales lead to rising inventory and (mercifully) less competition for potential buyers, They also, usually, herald declining prices. The level of deals in places like Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto has crumbled and prices are off the 2022 peak by about a quarter. It’s telling that Royal Lepage’s spring forecast of rising valuations turned into a prediction of flat prices by summer, and now the company admits real estate will sell for less. When realtors throw in the towel… it’s a buyer’s market.

Will things change?

Not soon. The economic situation in Canada could (and likely will) grow more concerning. Trump is out of control. Look at is emotional actions of the past 24 hours. Crafting a stable, long-term trading arrangement with the current White House is like trusting the mob. The president is capricious, unstable and inherently a bully who thinks winning means everybody else must lose.

The November 4th Carney budget will not be pretty. A massive deficit to try and finance non-US-dependent growth and austerity measures that will squeeze citizens. Given the American beast, there is little choice for the feds to act otherwise. But the uncertainty will not be a friend of the troubled housing market.

Interest rates are set to fall again this week, but the cuts are neither frequent nor deep enough to bring scads of buyers back and stabilize overall sales. Even with mortgages at 3%, most Canadians are loathe to borrow when unemployment rates are rising and the headlines dire.

So it looks like this buyer’s market will continue until the end of the year. If we strike a trade deal in the next six months or the CB gets spooked by lost jobs and cuts three or four times, the spring of ’26 might bring confidence and offers. But not yet.

So, if you have the cajones, this is the moment. Tons of choice. More pliant sellers. Reasonable interest rates. Little competition. And bargaining power.

In a buyer’s market you can make a conditional offer, and succeed. Insist on a satisfactory home inspection. You’ll get it. You can even try a SOP condition – saying you will buy this property upon the sale of your existing one within a defined period of time. If the seller gets a cash offer from someone else in the meantime, you have the right to firm up, or walk.

You can low-ball, of course. But understand that offering a seriously lower price than the vendor asks could bring an emotional response, a sense of insult and more trouble in arriving at a deal. Stay in your price range and dicker instead of trying to plunder and bully into a better hood. Don’t be a Trump.

Wait for the bottom before buying?

Sure. But where is that? Is it coming, or was it last week? Prices may weaken further as 2025 goes on, but more rate cuts or a Carney-orange guy deal could change everything. Dunno. So if you find a good house and can arrive at a fair deal (taking days to think about it, viewing it several times and offering with conditions to protect yourself) why not?

Or you can wait until things feel more comfortable, positive, hopeful, sunny and promising – and pay more in a bidding war after the sellers regain control.

Normal people will do the latter. Don’t be normal.

About the picture: “Hi Garth, meet Luna!” writes Gail. “She is such a cutie! A full personality who knows what she wants and she’s cute enough to get it. Her favourite hobbies are playing “bite the sleeve” and looking for cats under parked cars. She is living her best life here in London, England.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/10/26/buyers-on-top/