Getting reaped

Hanging on the front of the Department of Labor HQ in Washington is a giant banner, three-storeys-high of Trump’s head. “American Workers FIRST,” it screams.

Meanwhile on social media the president reposted another AI video, this time of the Grim Reaper – starring him – celebrating the fact thousands more federal workers are about to be reaped. This is beyond ironic. It’s chilling. The current government shutdown to the south of us is being used to cancel infrastructure projects in cities that elected Democrats and permanently shed boatloads of employees. This came three days after he told 800 generals and admirals that American cities would make “good training grounds” for American combat troops.

Yikes.

Well today we whould normally be discussing the latest jobs report from the US because that helps  determine the course of central bank interest rates, the cost of a mortgage in Moncton and house prices in Kelowna.

After all, the labour market has been cooling fast. Recent reports reflected a huge slowdown in hiring plus even a month of negative growth. The private sector report we referenced here earlier this week showed that employers have been shedding positions, an important trend even as the GDP grows and 47 boasts of golden days to come.

But, alas, no report today. The shutdown is the excuse. We ’re flying blind.

The growth (or shrinkage) in job numbers, plus wages and hours worked, are crucial to knowing where the economy’s heading. The Fed needs the data to set its policy rate and make other adjustments to monetary policy. Corporations are left guessing about investment and hiring strategies. So, everybody gets cautious. Things slow.

As mentioned, this week’s ADP report found private employers punted 32,000 workers last month. Another outfit (Challenger, Gray & Christmas) says current hiring is the lowest in 16 years. Most economists agree the economy was stronger, more stable and a helluva lot less dramatic when Joe Biden was in the White House.

It’s a double whammy now. Mass deportations are reducing the workforce. A nine-fold increase in tariffs is elevating consumer prices. Meanwhile the sharp polarization in politics has a disturbing number of Americans thinking their could be a civil war – especially after this week’s remarks to the military brass.

So reduced demand = more jobless = weaker economy. And that = further interest rate cuts.

The current odds for coming Fed cuts are as follows: October 29, 97.8%; December 10, 85.8%; January 28, 38% (with 54% for a hold); March 18, 63%.

As we all know, Canadian monetary policy follows that of the American central bank closely, in order to stabilize currencies as well as support the domestic economy. The expectation here is for one more cut this month, a pass before Christmas (after the November budget), then one or two early in the new year.

Of course, this is all dependent on stats. Yeah, like the jobs report that was heavily anticipated today.

Apparently all the data for that report was collected, analyzed, tabulated, processed and prepared, but the White House ordered the labor bureau shuttered immediately before it could be released. Telling.

And recall what the president did to the last data czar when the stats came up bad.

Yup. Reaped.

About the picture: “Here’s a photo of a pair of Siberian huskies,” writes David, in Nanaimo, “which I took on a recent visit to Hammerfest near the northern tip of Norway.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/10/03/getting-reaped/