40 is the new 29

Remember the ambo kids of the other day?

The Gen Zs thought renting was too rich so they bought a used ambulance and have lived in it for months, parking in sketchy places around Vancouver. They both work. Both earn about a hundred grand. They’ve saved $90,000 and wrote me to ask if they should buy a $740,000 condo because, well, everybody says it’s the adult thing to do.

They argued that real estate is unloved these days. Prices have dropped. Interest rates have fallen, and maybe this is their last, best chance ever to get a condo and raise a family. After all, ambos don’t have showers. Or, like, space.

You can guess my advice.

If they bought, the kids would have zero savings, $700,000 in debt and – with property tax, condo fees, insurance premiums and other ownership overhead – twice the monthly cost of renting the same unit. Moreover, they’d have risk. A further erosion in condo values could easily wipe out their equity, vaporize the down payment and leave them with nothing but a suffocating mortgage.

So, I asked, why would you buy something for double the carrying cost of leasing it with the potential for financial ruin? You still get a shower. You can grow your money by investing it – and even gain tax relief while doing so with a FHSA. Why spend four grand a month for something you can rent for two thousand, when renting carries no financial downside? Besides, when a kid comes along and is old enough to feel shame as a renter (apparently that’s age 8), you’ll probably have saved enough to get an actual house with dirt. Without needing to flog a condo in order to move ahead.

So we all know the real estate market is a swamp in most places these days. There was no spring market last year or in 2025. This year, no autumn market either. Inventory has stacked up. Prices have melted a little, but not enough. New home construction is a hot mess. Governments are again proving incapable of solving anything.

All this, it turns out, has seriously changed the housing landscape. Young buyers are not that, er, young anymore.

And it’s happening continent-wide. In the US, for example, the proportion of first-time buyers in the market has dropped to a record low of about 20% – while the typical age has risen to an historic high of 40. Seriously, forty. Middle-aged!

Repeat buyers now average 62. Yup, three years away from needing walkers, portable oxygen cannisters, thirsty underwear and bionic knees.

But wait. We’re different, right? In this country we have low downs, sexy home-savings plans, government support, stable and willing lenders and far cheaper mortgage rates. So the kiddos must have better traction.

Nope. Just as bad, it seems.

The average age for all of Canada for newbie buyers is 36. Every year the number seems to edge up, thanks to stupid house prices, student debt, failure-to-launch careers and the scary prospect of leaving mom’s basement. In the halcyon Eighties (my abs were legendary) the average first-timer was just 29.

In the major urban centres, new buyers are even more decrepit. The Toronto average matches that of the States – the big 4-0. That’s actually the norm now for all of Ontario, an increase of six years in just the past decade.

Vancouver? Close, but not quite so antique. The average buyer there, says CMHC, is a few months over o 37. However, 43% of all first-time purchases were made by the over-35 crowd. We also know at least four in ten of these buyers had some kind of financial assistance from the Bank of Mom, and over half (52%) of these young couples had kids (which is a big reason they decided to buy, no doubt).

Now, more scary stats.

Over the last dozen years, says the Bank of Canada, first-time buyers accounted for roughly half of all house purchases. That’s consistent with the experience of the past half-century, in fact.

But no more. The latest CMHC report says the newbie share of new buys has plummeted – to about 12%.

So, not only older. But scarcer. As any good boy scout knows, when the fire runs out of fuel, it sputters, smokes and dies. First-time buyers have always stoked real estate, and the above helps explain why in a single market (GTA) there are currently 30,000 resale homes and 21,000 new ones available at the same time. Meanwhile in Van the builders are pleading with politicians to save them,

So, ambo kids, stay put and save, or get out and rent. We’re not there yet.

About the picture: “MSU: Long-time reader, first time writer,” says Joel. “I appreciate your 24/7 blog and everything you do for the financial health of Canadians. In sad news, my brother and his wife (also long-time blog readers) recently lost their dog Alfie at the early age of 10 due to illness. She was a good pup and they, along with their three young children, are deeply saddened by the loss of the family pet. She was known for her high-energy “greetings” which demanded you to pet her as a requirement to be given permission to enter the home. She was also a patient and loyal companion to the kids, always present and observing. Her favourite pastimes included devouring scraps of food off the floor below the kids’ highchairs and chasing those pesky squirrels in the park. Here is a picture of Alfie in the early days. All Dogs Go To Heaven!”

To be in touch or send a picture ofk your beast, email to ‘garh@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/11/06/40-is-the-new-29/