Our B-day poll

It’s B-day tomorrow. The first federal accounting we’ve had since Katie Perry’s squeeze ran the place. That was back in the spring of 2024, when the projected deficit was a hair under $40 billion.

Just for reference (although I know you know this), the deficit is the amount of spending the government does in excess of the revenues it collects. That shortfall is financed mostly by issuing new bonds – which are debts. That’s added to the accumulated federal debt pile, now at $1.278 trillion.

To pay the interest on that debt this year will cost taxpayers about $54 billion. That is 10.4% of the entire federal budget, and larger than the amount the feds give the provinces to finance health care (which is $52.1 billion).

So, the deficit matters.

The last time the budget was in surplus was 2014. In that year we were positive by $1.9 billion. The PM was Stephen Harper. The Justin Trudeau crew ran deficits for every one of its ten years in office. But fiscal prudence is not just a “Liberal” thing since our longest streak of surpluses (1997-2007) happened when Jean Chretien and Paul Martin were in charge.

Well, let’s also remember what all these numbers mean. It cost $538 billion to run Canada for the past year. Tax revenues of all kinds were south of five hundred billion.

Finally, recall that a thousand times a million is a billion. And a thousand times a billion is a trillion. For context, a million seconds represents a vacation, or 12 days. A billion seconds equals a career, or 32 years. A trillion seconds is how long it seems this pathetic blog has been in existence, or 31,709 years.

Now, what’s Carney going to do?

Spend big on infrastructure, defence, housing and building stuff to lessen our dependence on you-know-who. At the same time he says the size of government will be lessened and that Canadians should expect to sacrifice a little. Or a lot. The budget will separate spending between operational things (child care, health, wrinklie pogey, bureaucracy, transfer payments etc. – that $538 billion mentoned above) and capital projects (ports, mines, reactors, subs, drones and more (another $50 billion, maybe).

The new pot of red ink could be $80 billion or a hundred. Dunno. But not small.

The oppo guys may freak at less government (NDP, Bloc) or more borrowing (Cons) and force an election. That would be a disaster and end the same way as the last one, probably. Poilievre is not riding high in the polls. The NDP is headless. The Bloc is weird.

Says Scotia’s economist Derek Holt, in a huge essay on the budget published Friday: “You either need to slash program spending by this amount to make way for the added spending, or hike taxes, or float much bigger deficits for a lengthy period of time.”

The opposition members must decide where they stand. So do we all.

What say you?

About the picture: “This is Griselda pondering elevated borrowing costs and inflation,” writes Denyse, “because she is a first-time buyer in Vancouver B.C.!! I think she’s going to run away from investing at this time. Enjoy the Fall season, Garth. ”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/11/03/our-b-day-poll/