S&P 500 Investors Get Jitters as Fed Officials Move Rate Cut Goalposts

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) saw very little change week over week. The index closed the trading week ending on 14 November 2025 at 6,734.11, up less than 0.1% from its previous week’s close.

There was more action than that during the week. The index rose early in the week by 1.75% as AI-related firms jumped only to give nearly all of its gain back by the end of the week. The main culprits behind that disappointing development were a number of Federal Reserve officials who signaled on Thursday, 13 November 2025 they are unlikely to cut the Federal Funds Rate again next month. That impacted the direction of stock prices because it prompted investors to revisit their expectations for the mega-caps funding their AI-technology infrastructure plans using debt, several of which represent some of the biggest firms within the S&P 500.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool absorbed that new information and changed to indicate just a 44% probability of one more quarter point cut to the Federal Funds Rate in 2025. In 2026, the FedWatch tool anticipates better than 50% probabilities for quarter point rate cuts on 28 January (2026-Q1), 17 June (2026-Q1), and 16 September (2026-Q3). The potential timing of all these projected rate cuts remains very fluid with substantial changes in expectations from week to week.

Meanwhile, the latest update of the alternative futures chart shows investors focused most their forward-looking attention on the current quarter of 2025-Q4 in the latter part of the week, which is consistent with the now open question of whether or not the Fed will cut rates in December 2025.

Here are the week’s market-moving headlines:

Monday, 10 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• At China’s largest import expo, US exhibitors hopeful worst of trade war is over

• US container imports fall in October amid tariff driven caution
• China suspends port fees on US-linked ships for a year

US Senate advances bill to end federal shutdown

• Democrats Concede Shutdown Fight Without Health Care Win in Hand
• US fourth-quarter GDP could be negative if shutdown drags on, White House economic adviser says
• US surpasses 10,000 flight delays Sunday in worst day of shutdown

Oil settles higher as tight fuel markets offset crude supply concerns

Fed minions thinking about how to set US interest rates:

• Fed’s Daly says policymakers need to keep an open mind about further cuts

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s car sales unexpectedly contract in October after eight-month expansion
• China’s internet firms cautiously revive lending as Beijing pushes consumer loans

Bigger stimulus developing in Japan as BOJ minions told by top politicians to hold off December rate hike, even though BOJ minions really want one:

• Japan’s stimulus plan to urge BOJ focus on boosting growth, draft outline shows
• BOJ should avoid December rate hike, says Takaichi’s economic adviser
• BOJ saw growing case for near-term rate hike, October meeting summary shows

ECB minions say Eurozone interest rates are right where they want them, Eurozone banks subsidizing “greener” companies with lower interest rates:

• ECB’s rates at right level barring deviations, ECB VP says
• Euro zone banks tilting loan pricing towards greener firms, ECB blog says

Wall Street rallies as investors await the end of the U.S. government shutdown

• Wall Street jumps, Nvidia and Palantir lead AI surge
• Health insurers slide as US reaches government shutdown deal without extending subsidies
• Gold climbs nearly 3% to two-week peak as soft economic data cements rate cut bets

Tuesday, 11 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• SoftBank unloads entire stake in Nvidia for $5.8B

• SoftBank’s $5.8 billion Nvidia stake sale stirs fresh AI bubble fears

Trump calls 50-year mortgages no ‘big deal’ as right-wing conservatives balk

US Senate passes bill to end government shutdown, sends to House

Oil up as investors balance sanctions risks, oversupply worries

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• Chinese goods dumping started before tariffs, ECB study finds
• China to provide new investment opportunities to US companies
• China’s central bank to maintain accommodative policy as challenges persist

Japan’s new boss wants “wage-driven” inflation:

• Japan prime minister ‘strongly hopes’ BOJ achieves wage-driven inflation

Wall Street closed mixed as the government shutdown resolution appears close

• Dow notches record high close, traders bet on end to government shutdown
• Gold gives up gains as traders weigh imminent end to U.S. government shutdown

Wednesday, 12 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US lost jobs through late October, new private-sector data shows
• China’s soybean glut could defeat US export hopes after trade thaw
• Oil prices fall, markets look to US government reopening
• After the bell….

• House passes bill to end historic government shutdown, sending measure to Trump
• President Trump signs government funding bill, ending shutdown after a record 43-day disruption for country

Fed minions say they’re reluctant to cut rates as they’re expected to in December 2025, taking actions to fend off liquidity problems:

• Fed’s Bostic favors no change in rates while inflation remains greater risk

• Atlanta Fed’s Bostic: ‘I see little to suggest that price pressures will dissipate before mid- to late 2026’
• Bostic announces retirement amid Trump push for more influence over Fed

US Supreme Court to hear Trump’s bid to fire Fed’s Lisa Cook on January 21

Fed split deepens as Collins says she would hesitate to support another cut

Fed to cut rates again in December on weakening job market, say most economists

Fed may soon start buying bonds to manage market liquidity, Williams says

• Fed’s Waller: streamlined payment accounts to be operational by 4Q 2026
• New York Fed’s Perli encourages use of Standing Repo Facility to deal with liquidity needs

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China’s Singles’ Day shopping festival winds down with ‘muted’ sentiment
• US House report accuses China of minerals market interference

Bigger stimulus developing in Japan:

• New reflationist members at Japan’s top economic panel push for big stimulus

ECB minions thinking Eurozone inflation risk is low:

• Euro zone inflation risks may be tilted to upside, Schnabel argues

Dow finishes at all-time high as government shutdown end nears; Nasdaq lags amid struggling tech trade

Thursday, 13 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices steady after steep losses in previous session
• US corporate bankruptcies set to hit 15-year high amid credit jitters, S&P data shows

Fed’s December rate cut looks increasingly like a toss-up

• Odds of December Fed rate cut sink amid hawkish commentary, market selloff

• Fed policy needs to stay ‘somewhat restrictive’, Cleveland Fed’s Hammack says
• Fed’s Kashkari wanted rate-cut pause in October, reports Bloomberg News
• Fed’s Daly open-minded on December rate cut amid balanced risks

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China’s October new home prices fall at fastest pace in a year
• https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-october-new-bank-loans-fall-sharply-missing-forecast-2025-11-13/

Bigger trouble developing in Japan with prices, BOJ minions want wage inflation:

• Japan’s wholesale prices rise more than expected on sticky food inflation
• Bank of Japan aims for wage-driven inflation, aligns with government view

U.S. stocks sink as post-shutdown optimism fades, rate cut odds fall

• Nasdaq tumbles and these 10 stocks are driving the drop

• Wall Street tumbles as Nvidia slides, investors fret that Fed may slow rate cuts

Friday, 14 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack
• Trump cuts tariffs on beef, coffee and other foods as inflation concerns mount

More Fed minions signal reluctance to cut rates in December, another minion revealed to have ethics problem that led to their unexpected exit:

• As Fed hawks press their case, traders bet against December cut

• Fed’s Logan: Would be hard to support December rate cut

Former Fed Governor Kugler’s exit came amid forbidden trading activity

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s economy jolted by weakest factory output, retail sales growth in over a year
• China vows to boost consumption, better balance demand and supply

Wall Street ends mixed, Nasdaq survives from selloff amid valuation worries

• Wall Street ends mixed; traders look to Nvidia report

The end of the federal government shutdown had very little impact on stock prices. That’s an expected outcome because most political events that don’t involve changes in tax rates tend to contribute little more than noise to markets. That doesn’t mean it won’t have an economic impact, because of its length and because it began to disrupt air transportation with air traffic controllers not showing up for work at major airports after a month of going unpaid.

We don’t know yet how big that impact might be. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the recently ended 2025-Q3 was unchanged at +4.0%, as many economic data reports remain on hold with the government slowly resuming operations after the Senate Democrats’ failed shutdown. The BEA’s official estimates of GDP in 2025-Q3 remain on hold as well. And for that matter, 2025-Q4, which is when any actual economic contraction related to the shutdown occurred.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon showing Federal Reserve officials in suits carrying football goalposts labeled ‘RATE CUT’ away from a Wall Street bull wearing a football uniform and preparing to kick a field goal, who looks frustrated as the goalposts are being moved further away”