The city state

Can we talk about Brampton without the usual smartass comments on race?

Good. Let’s try. The story’s interesting.

It’s a city of just under 800,000 people on the fringe of Torontopolis. That makes it bigger now than Mississauga. In fact this is the seventh-largest city in Canada, and the fastest-growing. The real estate market here went utterly nuts in the last decade. Acre after acre of farmland was bulldozed, serviced and covered with dense, expensive singles, semis, rowhouses and townhomes. Wide roads were carved, big malls erected and the area serviced with a massive 400-series highway, plus a commuter train network.

Covid was a highpoint in Brampton, as in more distant Bunnypatch centres.

In 2021, when we were all masked-up, socially distanced and nicely vaxxed, an astonishing 12,021 houses sold in this community. In ten years, between 2011 and the pandemic, detached homes in Brampton gained 225% in value. What changed hands for $447,483 in 2011 was fetching $1,456,763 by the end of 2021. Astonishing. Unprecedented.

All housing types, in fact, erupted. A semi-detached home soared from $343,879 to $1,120,501 – a gain of 226%. And by the time Covid was in full flower, larger condos that sold for $237,300 had become units worth $802,4856.

We all know why.

Recently-built homes in part of East Brampton

To keep the economy from croaking when unemployment surged above 14%, the central bank crashed interest rates. Mortgages were widely available for 2% or less. Consumers pigged out on cheap debt. Home prices soared as a direct consequence – in Brampton, as across the country. But more here than in most places.

That’s because Brampton was perfect for Covid cocooning – not the big, germy, scary city and not the isolated, resource-poor hinterland. Here was a thriving place with libraries, schools, parks, fast roads, transit, endless retail, oodles of nice new homes, and yet was just a few minutes away from forest, rivers and provincial parks.

And then, of course, Brampton was a mecca for new Canadians. It came to be an ethnoburb, with a large diaspora of families from India. Just over 52% of the city claims South Asian roots, and 53% of the population was born outside Canada – predominately in India, Jamaica and Pakistan. Astonishingly, more than 80% of this entire city is made up of visible minorities – 28% being from India, but including 249 other ethnic origins.

Moreover, look at the average age: 37. That’s younger than most cities. Younger than the Canadian average of 42.

So, add it up. Cheap rates + vast tracts of available housing stock + Covid + newcomers from countries big on home ownership + nesting-age population + a place of convenience and services adjacent to the country’s biggest city. The result: a housing orgy.

That was the Brampton lesson. If you want to create a FOMO-infused real estate frenzy, just repeat the formula. And if you want to see what happens to that when conditions change, come back to Brampton with me.

This is now. Mortgages have doubled in cost. The economy has cooled. Covid is gone and thousands have been recalled to city-based workplaces. Trump, tariffs and layoffs came. The big Brampton Stellantis plant was idled. And Canada’s immigration levels have been sliced by the federal government.

Brampton is apparently still growing. But the shine is gone. So are the bidding wars, blind auctions, bully bids and buyer lust.

Last year just 4,622 houses changed hands, a drop of almost 11% from 2024, and a devastating crash of 62% from the pandemic-era high. We have just finished the worst year in the past quarter-century for transactions in this city.

Prices have tumbled. That detached place settling for $1.456 million in 2021 was $1.165 million one year ago, and dropped to $1.054 last month. The decline was 9.5% on the year – far greater than the GTA average – and 28% since the peak.

The average for all housing types dropped below $900,000 for the first time since 2020. Semi-detached homes plunged almost 15% last year alone, from over $9932,000 to $795,000. Condos shed more than 14% of their value.

The perfect storm. Is it over?

The realtors say so. “The GTA housing market became more affordable in 2025 as selling prices and mortgage rates trended lower,” claims the real estate board head wizard. “Improved affordability has set the market up for recovery. Once households are convinced that the economy and labour market are on a solid footing, sales will increase as pent-up demand is satisfied.”

Time will tell. Interest rates are stalled. Trump has three years of mayhem left. Tariffs remain. Trade talks loom. Unemployment has increased. And our population has stalled.

Will these things outweigh prices which have careened lower, highly motivated sellers, lots of inventory and scant competition among buyers?

Last year forty-six hundred families in this place took a gamble, and bought.

Life goes on.

About the picture: “Too many dogs recently!” writes Irene. “Here is my cat Mishka. Cutest and smartest furry baby I ever had! I disagree with you on politics, on real estate, many things, but keep coming here anyway, why?”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/01/15/the-city-state/