The oracle

Days ago this blog mentioned crusty mortgage broker Ron Butler. It was the first reference in several months, flowing from his social media ascent as a doomer Chicken Little. Well, not so little.

“The one thing for sure is that it’s going to get worse in Ontario. There is no possibility of better,” he told a MSM reporter. “Thinking otherwise, it’s entirely based on hopium.” He says rising unemployment, falling immigration, Trump and lots of mortgage renewals at stiffer rates are the reasons.

Ron has 56,000 Insta followers and 112,000 on TikTok in part because he drops a lot of F-bombs (the Zees like that), hates governments (and immigration) and repeatedly claims the old are screwing the young. One of the first social media mentions of him was on this blog. Then he got weird. Lately he banned me from commenting on his X feed (I never did), then banned me as a follower (poor Ron).

Nobody is well served these days by extremism. Not when it comes to making – or eschewing – a huge life investment. Buying real estate in this market, says Butler, is foolish. Prices may fall further, so wait. But eventually, of course, they’ll rise (if not, he wouldn’t be giving out mortgage funds). The point is, potty-mouthed RB is trying to time the market. Lately he’s been telling the kiddos to wait until May or June.

What’s the score now?

In the bellweather GTA market, just over half the houses listed in 2025 sold, says a property site. “Home sales were the lowest in the region in HouseSigma’s 23 years of sales records, and reported by TRREB as the lowest since 2000,” it states in a media release. “Sales last year were half that of the peak in 2021, marking a rapid decline. What’s more, the average home in the GTA listed as of December had been for sale for nearly three months, with inventory piling up.”

Well, not exactly. Between 25% and a third of all those listings were repeats – houses that sat for (on average) 90 days, then were relaunched as new offerings. This is why many real estate boards have started publishing CDOM data – cumulative days on market – giving a more accurate read on the length of time a seller has been trying to find a buyer. As HouseSigma notes, of the 181,000 new listings in the market last year, about 70,000 were reruns.

Sales levels across Canada have dropped back to levels not seen for twenty years. Average prices have fallen by about 26% from the peak in 2022. Mortgage financing charges have declined 24% from when the Bank of Canada was fighting inflation (it won). In most cases, bidding wars, multiple offers, blind auctions and offer days have disappeared. There is vastly less competition among buyers. More time to shop and compare. The ability now exists to make protective offers, conditional upon home inspections or financing.

In short, buyers rule. They hold the cards. Tons of choice. Lower asks. Reasonable loan costs. Malleable sellers. And prices that are sharply lower than the post-pandemic FOMO fest.

So why would anyone listen to Butler? Hide and quiver?

Because he’s a social media influencer and self-anointed authority figure telling people (especially inexperienced ones) what to think. To gains clicks and followers, the advice becomes ever more strident, appealing, unqualified and extreme. That’s how social media works. Say whatever you want, no matter how misleading, but ensure you do it loud and often. Feed the bias, and you’ll be a star.

So what’s wrong with his don’t-dare-buy-now mantra?

The same logic as not scooping shares in RBC when they slump during a recession, or fleeing from an S&P ETF when Trump announces new tariffs. What wise investors know is that temporary corrections are, well, temporary.  Almost without exception, they’re buying opportunities. No collapse is coming. These are moments when merchants of fear cause panic among the many (and naive) while favouring the few (with confidence and foresight).

It’s easy to scare people. Especially now. It’s everywhere.

But residential real estate is not like crypto or private equity in an AI startup. There is a steady, insatiable, demographic-driven demand for this asset class and the long-term odds (10+ years) of retaining capital or making a profit have proven to be 100%. Is this not the moment folks have been waiting for? If you can buy at a 25% discount to recent pricing, with much lower financing costs, using generous tax shelters to do so, why not?

Because, Butler says, houses could cost less in May.

And maybe they will. Or not. And if they are, will you buy then? Or wait longer, until you can see the bottom has passed and prices are again rising? In fact, when do you ever buy while being freaked out and manipulated by an old guy who thinks clicks are love?

Just asking.

Maybe it’s time to think for yourself.

About the picture: “Here are Gibson the Grey & Brindle Bala after our daily walk,” writes Andrewski. “Not sure why Gibson is giving me the raspberry as we had just completed a super fast 12K walk in just over 100 minutes, which is around 8 minutes 30 seconds per kilometre. I agree with recent dog blog’s comments that (far) too many dogs are not living their best lives, as we walk varied routes & see/hear the desperation in their barks (wanting to join us) when we walk by them, just sitting around in their yards. (Very sadly) A misbehaving dog is a (highly) discouraged dog.”

To be in touch or send a pictire of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/01/11/the-oracle/