Into the wild

What a world we’re in. A trade war. Another real one. An energy crisis. Lousy jobs numbers. We flubbed hockey gold. And the Air Canada boss can’t speak French. Mon Dieu. We’re pooched.

But wait.

The real estate cartel says everything’s okay because Canadians will soon start gobbling up cottages again, sending rec property prices upwards. On Thursday, as the bombing campaign in Iran intensified and oil again shot into the $90 range, Phil Soper over at Royal LePage had bass fishing, pickleball, jetskis and weenies roasting over an open fire on his mind.

The company is forecasting a good summer ahead, whatever Trump and Netanyahu do. “New developments in these regions remain relatively rare, and many properties are tightly held by families for generations. This scarcity preserves the exclusivity of these markets and provides price stability, even when buyers are feeling cautious.”

And so we get this hopium – a report based on the company’s own agents (who are paid only when they sell stuff):

A report released Thursday by Royal LePage forecasts the median price of a single-family home in Canada’s so-called recreational regions to rise four per cent year-over-year to $604,552. It said the weighted median price of a single-family home increased 4.3 per cent year-over-year in 2025 to $581,300.

Each provincial market is expected to see price increases this year, led by a 5.5 per cent gain in Saskatchewan and Manitoba to a median price of $296,877, and a five per cent increase in Atlantic Canada to a median price of $361,305.

B.C. is the most expensive province to own a recreational home in, with Royal LePage forecasting a 1.5 per cent boost in the median price of a single-family property to nearly $1.06 million, followed by Alberta at $881,295, up 2.5 per cent. Ontario is expected to see a two per cent increase to a median price of $643,722.

Well, cottages, chalets and hobby farms are usually not primary residences – so with urban real estate in the dumpster lately, why would the secondary property market mark prices rising at twice the rate of inflation? And are there really enough dumb people in BC to push the value of mice-infested, DIY cabins to over a million?

Don’t count on it. Current facts suggest the Canadian economy is closer than expected to a recession. We lost 84,000 jobs last month. The population has started to shrink. Our US trade deal may be in trouble this summer. Elevated oil means more inflation and maybe higher interest rates. Property sales are a drag. New homes are a disaster. Hard to fathom bidding wars in the hinterland.

But this is Canada. Anything can happen. We’re still obsessed with real estate. And house flogger Soper has probably been right more times than this pathetic blog. He knows we’re smitten. And he feeds it.

Now, let’s counter this fluff with some facts, coming from data aggregator HouseSigma. Not so fast, it says, because these days we are totally in the grips of a cascading market where asking prices remain unreasonable – and largely unrealized.

The outfit’s ‘Market Temperature’ graphs chart the absorption rate in various cities, showing the share of active listings that attract firm, accepted offers in any given month. In other words, it gives a live indication of supply (inventory) and demand (greater fools).

In tracking five years of data in Vancouver, the GTA and Calgary, it says, “a clear pattern emerged. The absorption rate doesn’t just describe current conditions — it often moves ahead of what sellers actually accept at the negotiating table, otherwise known as the sale-to-list-price ratio.”

So it’s about predictions. A falling absorption level becomes declining prices a month later, and vice versa. When competition among sellers is high and buyers scare, prices go down with absorption – which is exactly what’s been happening.

Here’s how badly the real estate market got a chill

By measuring the monthly sale of active listings and realized prices HouseSigma says future valuations can be predicted. The direction is down, in Vancouver, the GTA and Calgary.

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“All three markets are currently cooling,” says the analysis, “and in each the sale-to-list ratio is following the absorption rate down. Metro Vancouver’s absorption rate hit a five-year low in January 2026 and is still very muted. The GTA has been soft throughout 2025, with sellers consistently accepting below asking. Calgary, starting from a higher base, has cooled more recently but is now tracking the same direction.”

What do the charts predict now?

More of the same. Less demand. Lower prices. And there are other factors working to depress valuations. First, it’s spring. Rutting season – when a barrage of new listings hits the market, further disrupting the supply/demand ratio. Second, Trump. The quixotic, irrational, emotional and unpredictable American president’s waverings have jerked around equity markets, bond yields and consumer sentiment.

Why would you buy a remote, off-grid cottage if you believe WW3 is at hand?

On second thought…

About the picture: “I know it looks like they want to kill each other,” writes Mike, from Hamilton, “but Luna and Brady are have a grand old time playing in the yard together.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/03/26/into-the-wild/