The whine cellar

If you want morose, baby, this is your site. Failed Cons, basement-dwelling adult children, bitter, houseless Millennials, trans-haters, burn-it-all-down Avi Lewis sociopaths and the eternal ‘Canada is broken’ crowd – they’re all here. Every day.

So are things getting worse, darker, hopeless?

Nah. Just because a bunch of kiddos with unrealistic expectations can’t buy a first home nicer than their parents’ final one does not mean we have a crisis. Things could be better, of course. But they’re not dire. Not even close.

‘Give us an example, you pollyannish, out-of-touch old fart!’, the naysayers cry. ‘We’re not buying your blog BS.’

Well, let’s talk houses. Sales have been awful, inventory piling up, realtors starving and sellers desperate in most major markets because buyers are too chicken to buy. This blog told you that with a 20-30% price decline, financing charges far lower than a year ago, less competition, the return of conditional offers and motivated vendors the time might be auspicious to go shopping.

But, no. The hairshirt crowd said they’re waiting for prices to halve. Until then, it’s “catching a falling knife.”

Really? Last night I got this report from a veteran realtor in mid-town Toronto.

“The past week has, dare I say it, seemed like a Spring Market!! I had a showing this Saturday for a 30 footer in Riverdale, needed some work. Offers were set for Monday.

“Friday night I was alerted to 8 offers and a Saturday morning Offer date. It sold Saturday for 1 million over asking. There seems to be some FOMO happening or people seizing the moment. Otherwise, homes such as in Midtown have been selling in the last week but of course under what they would have last year. Buyers are out in full force seeking a deal.”

Just more realtor drizzle? Maybe. But if she’s right, a bunch of malinformed people just blew it.

Hold on, though. Isn’t the economy down for the count?

The latest unemployment stat sucked, we’ve been living through Trump’s tariffs and destruction of the car business, manufacturing is on the ropes, the population has actually started to shrink, the American war is making everything uncertain and Carney is about to let in fifty thousand Chinese EVs, putting more paycheques at risk. Next stop, recession?

Nope. We’re not there. And probably won’t get there, either.

Turns out the Canadian economy is still growing – if only at a crawl – not contracting. A recession takes more than two full quarters of economic shrinkage to form, and we haven’t even had one so far. Today we learned that GDP was up for another straight month – not much, but growth is growth. Areas of expansion included defense spending, infrastructure, construction, engineering, transportation and data centres

“The one-two combo of somewhat better-than-expected growth in both of the first two months of the year sets a much better tone to Q1 than anticipated,” says BMO economist Doug Porter. “We are upgrading our GDP estimate for Q1 (which, yes, ends today) to 1.5% (from 0.8%), but that only brings it back up close to where the BoC initially expected growth.”

Will the war dampen things until there’s a resolution?

You bet. But with each passing hour – and the wavering, weaving, bobbing, flailing positions of the American president, trapped in a quagmire of his own creation – the end draws nearer.

We told you earlier this week that Mr. Market thinks the war is old, stocks have been made cheap enough to munch on, corporate profits are expected to rise snappily this year, and sitting on cash waiting for Armageddon is puerile.

Today the Dow opened up a few hundred more points, even as oil stayed expensive. Tech stocks have found their momentum again. Bond yields have dipped. Most importantly, Trump’s inconsistent and contradictory rants carry less weight by the hour. Now he suggests the US can exit with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. Plus, Iran still has the uranium. And an underdog country has managed to upset the global economy while staying unbowed before the greatest military machine in history.

Time to look past the detritus kids. Moaning was so 2025.

About the picture: “Hi Garth, here’s Bala reposing in the sun,” writes Andrewski, “with nary a care about whatever is going on in the world today. Lucky dog!”

To be in touch or send a picture of yuor beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca.’